Closed markets

Systematic review of Pernod Ricard’s official media and investor communications for May 2026, along with trade and financial press coverage of the GH Mumm offload speculation, shows no press release, executive comment, or earnings remark in that month where Pernod Ricard explicitly addresses any specific portfolio-sale rumor; all identified official statements either predate May or concern other topics.

Campari Group’s own May 2026 investor communications, including the 06 May 2026 Q1 press release, contain no announcement of any definitive acquisition agreement, and contemporaneous industry and market coverage similarly report no Campari acquisitions announced in May 2026. The only relevant 2026 deal coverage in the provided hints concerns Disaronno acquiring brands from Campari in June 2026, which is a disposal by Campari and outside the May window.

7/10 confidence

Reyes Beverage Group’s own May 29, 2026 press release explicitly states that at the end of business that day it "will have officially closed" its acquisition of RNDC’s operations in 11 named markets, satisfying the requirement for a public corporate confirmation of closing and operational handoff for the first wave of states before 23:59 ET on May 31, 2026. This is corroborated by multiple industry trade sources summarizing the deal as closed.

Yahoo Finance's historical data, which the market explicitly designates as the resolution source, shows BF.B closing at about $25.72 on May 29, 2026 and at a clearly higher price on May 1, 2026, and this May 29 figure is corroborated by Brown-Forman's own historic prices tool, Public.com, and Morningstar, so May 29, 2026 did not close higher than May 1, 2026.

Yahoo Finance historical data shows MGPI closed around $20.34 on May 1, 2026 and around $17.65 on May 29, 2026, so the May 29 close is clearly lower than the May 1 close; this is corroborated by StockAnalysis and MGPI’s own historical data.

Both Bar-Solution and Fred Minnick reproduce the official Tales of the Cocktail Top 10 Nominees announcement for 2026, and their identical Best New U.S. Cocktail Bar lists include Donna’s in Houston, Texas, satisfying the condition that at least one Texas venue appears in the Top 10.

The official 2026 Top 10 list for Best U.S. Restaurant Bar, as published by Tales of the Cocktail Foundation and corroborated by Bar-Solution and The Spirits Business, contains only one New York City venue (Bar Madonna — Brooklyn, NY), which is fewer than the three NYC venues required by the market’s criteria.

Eater NY clearly published a rooftop summer drinking guide, 'Where to Drink on a Rooftop in NYC This Summer,' on 2026-05-06, which falls within the May 1–22 window and directly satisfies the rooftop/warm-weather guide requirement.

The official Tales of the Cocktail Foundation Top 10 list for Best U.S. Cocktail Bar, published May 21, 2026, lists ten venues in New York, Chicago, Washington DC, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, but none with a Brooklyn address; the only New York entries are in Manhattan, so there is no Brooklyn venue on the list.

The official Tales of the Cocktail Foundation Top 10 list for the 2026 Best U.S. Bar Team category names ten bars, none of which is a Death & Co venue; this is corroborated by both the full nominee list and a secondary trade publication summary.

Searches of Mr Black's official Instagram feed, its 2026 news/blog, and 2026 PR/press mentions show no announcement of any collaboration product, partner event, or co-marketing campaign explicitly tied to International Cold Brew Day 2026 before May 15, 2026, so the condition for a YES resolution is not met.

Within May 1–15, 2026, Shanken News Daily reports one new flavored spirits SKU (Caliente cinnamon-flavored Blanco Tequila on May 6), but it is from John Anthony Wine & Spirits/Lo Siento, which is not a DISCUS top‑10 U.S. spirits company by volume. Other in-window flavor launches relate to beer/malt (Modelo Cheladas) or mixers (Bene), so there is no qualifying flavored spirits SKU from a top‑10 DISCUS company in the specified window.

Review of SEC EDGAR 8-K filings during the window, including all specified companies and a broader 8-K search, shows no current report by a major spirits distributor announcing a state market exit or similar event by the deadline; media coverage of RNDC's California withdrawal does not involve an 8-K filing and therefore does not meet the resolution criteria.

Review of SEC EDGAR for Pernod Ricard (CIK 0001111928) confirms no Form 8-K filings in the May 12–16, 2026 window, and Pernod Ricard’s official news and regulatory pages show no press release in that period announcing a major brand divestiture, discontinuation, or exit.

The official Becle 1Q26 earnings release is the strongest primary source and shows net sales of Ps. 7,405 million versus Ps. 9,628 million in 1Q25, a 23.1% decline. That is well below the 8.0% growth threshold.

EDGAR company pages and a date-bounded EDGAR 8-K search show no Form 8-K between May 12–16, 2026 from known publicly traded large spirits distributors (e.g., Molson Coors, Diageo) that reports any brand exit, delisting, or discontinuation in a US state, so the criterion for a YES resolution is not met.

Review of Pernod Ricard’s own newsroom and all-press-releases archive shows no qualifying acquisition, investment, or brand partnership announcement between May 11 and May 14, 2026, and major newswires like Reuters and WSJ likewise report no such deal, so the condition for YES was not met.

Checking The Spirits Business news index and homepage for 4–10 May 2026 shows no article labeled as 'Spirit of the Week' or an equivalent weekly spirits spotlight, and the in-window features that mention tequila (such as the April marketing round-up) are not structured as a weekly product-focused column. This supports resolving the market as NO.

Review of the official James Beard Foundation News and Media Center pages shows no press release announcing 2026 semifinalists posted by May 12, 2026 23:59 UTC, so the condition for YES was not met.

The official Q4 FY2026 earnings release on ir.cbrands.com reports beer net sales of about $1.73 billion, which is well below the $2.1 billion consensus threshold, so the condition for a YES outcome is not met.

Becle’s own Q1 2026 earnings release on ir.becle.com states tequila net revenues of about MXN 4.7 billion, which is below the 5B MXN threshold, corroborated by Reuters’ report citing the same figure.

Brown-Forman’s own May 9, 2026 Q4 FY2026 earnings release and conference call clearly state that organic net sales grew 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, which does not exceed the 2% threshold.

The SEC Form 6-K for Diageo's Q3 2026 trading statement and Diageo's own press release both state that organic net sales grew 0.3% in the quarter, which is well below 3%, so the condition for a YES outcome is not met.

Checking Pernod Ricard’s official newsroom and press release listings for May 5–10, 2026 shows no press release that fits the specified criteria of a brand exit, delist/delistment, state departure, or distributor split by May 10, so the condition for YES was not met.

Checking grancentenario.com/news, the broader official site, and cached/archived views for early May 2026 shows no announcement or press release mentioning Rápido Gringo Test results or participation by May 8, so the condition for YES is not met.

Two primary Shanken News Daily articles within window explicitly name RNDC brand exits (e.g., suppliers to Reyes in California), directly satisfying criteria. Published May 4 and May 7, before May 8 23:59 UTC.

Solid evidence

No evidence of any Federal Register notice listing UK whisky tariff revocation by May 6; primary sources confirm announcement but explicitly state no official document released. Trade Compliance Resource Hub tracker on May 7 confirms absence.

He didn't post 5/4

Post-date check (May 5, 2026) confirms all four official accounts published zero qualifying feed posts or Reels on May 4 ET. Primary source verification via direct profile inspection.

Current prices from Kraken ($79.17) and Google Finance (low $78.25) on May 5 pre-market are below $79.70, strongly indicating Monday's NYSE close was ≤$79.70. Yahoo Finance official close unavailable in results but other sources align with NO; admin should verify primary source.

Investing.com reports BF.B closing price on May 4, 2026 at $25.46, below $25.55; this aligns with resolution source (Yahoo Finance style) but requires admin verification on Yahoo Finance as primary source of truth. Brown-Forman official site confirms reference close.

Robinhood explicitly states May 4 close at $19.40, equal to prior Friday's $19.40, resolving NO per criteria. Official IR site shows intraday last at $18.90 (post-1PM ET), consistent with <= $19.40 close; lacks Yahoo Finance but strongest available primary evidence.

Evidence shows STZ closed at $152.82 on May 1 (Friday), matching the reference close; no May 4 data found as markets have not opened by 4 AM UTC May 5. Company IR and Investing.com confirm the Friday close exactly at threshold.

Trick Dog from San Francisco was named Bar of the Year. Not a new york bar.