Every market that is no longer open. Resolved markets publish a public receipt with named evidence and a confidence score. Voided markets refund the score. Closed-but- unresolved markets are listed too, with their resolution date.
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Review of the SEC EDGAR recent 8-K list and the specific hinted accession numbers shows no Form 8-K within the window in which a top-10 global spirits supplier listed on a US exchange discloses a completed acquisition of a spirits or RTD brand; filings from relevant beverage companies concern dividends or routine corporate matters rather than brand acquisitions.
Search of the referenced LQR House 8-K, its filings list, and recent public communications from Brown-Forman, Constellation Brands, and Pernod Ricard shows no Form 8-K filed within the relevant week by a top-10 global spirits company that explicitly describes new or amended U.S. distributor arrangements; available distributor-change announcements appear only in press releases or older periods and not as qualifying 8-Ks.
Searches within the July 20–23, 2026 window found no official press release from a nationally ranked US cocktail bar announcing a forthcoming flagship location explicitly described as a main or lead venue; the only in-window PR wire item (Bowtie Bar) does not meet the 'major, nationally ranked/awarded' or 'flagship' criteria.
The Southern Glazer’s official newsroom press releases index and overview pages show no SGWS press releases dated between 2026-07-10 and 2026-07-17 that announce a distributor realignment, commercial service model change, or territory/book shift; the only relevant commercial service model change release is dated 2026-07-07, outside the window.
Within the 72-hour window, Southern Glazer’s newsroom overview and press releases continue to use 'Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits' and show no press release explicitly announcing a new corporate name, so the formal debut condition for YES is not met.
Review of Southern Glazer’s official newsroom press releases index and the provided trade press articles shows no SGWS newsroom press release dated between July 12 and July 17, 2026 announcing a new supplier, portfolio, or expanded distribution agreement, nor any trade article in that window citing such a release.
Checking the California, New York, Washington, and Illinois official WARN/layoff notice portals shows no new entries during the July 12–15, 2026 window naming Reyes Beverage Group or a clearly identifiable Reyes subsidiary; available news coverage of WARN activity relates to Republic National Distributing and falls outside the window.
Within the window, the only identified Form 8-Ks and related primary disclosures from major beverage companies (including Monster Beverage and National Beverage) concern dividends, stock splits, or financial results and do not announce any new state, territory, or regional market exit by a top-10 US spirits distributor.
Checks of the Vinexpo Americas press resources and partners pages, as well as IMEX Management’s Vinexpo Americas page, show no press release or sponsor-page update within June 29–July 5, 2026 that adds or names a new US-based spirits sponsor, so the no_test is met.
Multiple in-window reports (Distillery Trail, WSJ, Barron's, Drinks International, Herald-Leader) describe Sazerac's approach and Brown-Forman's rejection but consistently note the absence of any official statement from Brown-Forman or Sazerac confirming formal deal talks; this matches the 'NO' condition of rumors and sourced reporting without on-the-record confirmation.
Access LIVE 2026 ran February 2–5, 2026, and WSWA’s official event site and media recap, along with its news page, contain no announcement of a new strategic portfolio or distribution partnership involving a top-10 U.S. distributor during that window. The absence of such an announcement in WSWA’s own news and Access LIVE media, combined with post-event coverage, supports resolving NO.
Asbury Park Summer Beer, Wine and Spirits Fest published its official participating brand list ahead of the June 27, 2026 gates, naming well over 15 distinct spirits brands. Confirmed spirits on the roster include Tullamore Dew, Four Roses, Bardstown, Green River, Redwood Empire Whiskey, Suerte Tequila, Lalo Tequila, Bel Agave, Whiteout Tequila, Gran Lastul Tequila, Alibi Gin, Fort Hamilton, Double Cross Vodka, Illadelph Spirits, Royal Tiger, Pinaq, El Buho mezcal, and 3 BR Distilling, among others. Since the count of named spirits brands cleared 15 well before doors opened at Bradley Park in Asbury Park, NJ, the market resolves YES.
New York City won three medals at the 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards on June 15, 2026 in Chicago. Lei, the intimate Manhattan wine bar and restaurant, was named Best New Restaurant. Lee Campbell of Borgo took Outstanding Professional in Beverage Service. Hooni Kim of Meju in Long Island City won Best Chef: New York State. The trio marks NYCs strongest showing in years and confirms YES on this market. Philadelphia took two medals, Portland took three, and Chicago hosted the ceremony at the Lyric Opera.
The official James Beard Foundation 2026 Restaurant and Chef Award winners list shows exactly two Philadelphia winners (Kalaya for Outstanding Restaurant and Jesse Ito/Royal Sushi & Izakaya for Best Chef: Mid-Atlantic) and three New York City winners (Lei for Best New Restaurant, Borgo/Lee Campbell for Outstanding Professional in Beverage Service, and Meju/Hooni Kim for Best Chef: New York State). Since New York City's total (3) is greater than Philadelphia's total (2), the market resolves NO based on the specified criteria, corroborated by multiple primary and major secondary sources.
Scotch Lodge in Portland, Oregon won the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar award, announced June 15, 2026 at the Restaurant and Chef Awards ceremony at the Lyric Opera of Chicago. Founder Tommy Klus accepted the national medal for the Southeast Portland whiskey bar. The other four finalists were Bow and Arrow Brewing Co. in Albuquerque, The Lovers Bar at Friday Saturday Sunday in Philadelphia, Onyx Coffee Lab in Rogers, Arkansas, and Smuggler's Cove in San Francisco. The 2025 winner Kumiko in Chicago was ineligible to repeat. This market resolves YES because the winner sits outside the five boroughs of New York City. Portland took home three total James Beard medals in 2026, the strongest showing for the city since Naomi Pomeroy in 2014.
Systematic review of Pernod Ricard’s official media and investor communications for May 2026, along with trade and financial press coverage of the GH Mumm offload speculation, shows no press release, executive comment, or earnings remark in that month where Pernod Ricard explicitly addresses any specific portfolio-sale rumor; all identified official statements either predate May or concern other topics.
Campari Group’s own May 2026 investor communications, including the 06 May 2026 Q1 press release, contain no announcement of any definitive acquisition agreement, and contemporaneous industry and market coverage similarly report no Campari acquisitions announced in May 2026. The only relevant 2026 deal coverage in the provided hints concerns Disaronno acquiring brands from Campari in June 2026, which is a disposal by Campari and outside the May window.
The US federal government announced spirits-specific tariff action in May 2026 when President Trump agreed to remove US tariffs on UK-origin whisky, including single malt Scotch, timed to King Charles state visit. The exemption was tracked in the Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker and covered by NYT, CNBC, Bloomberg, and The Whiskey Wash between April 30 and May 6. Separately, the Distilled Spirits Council CEO testified before Congress on May 8 on whiskey tariffs. Because at least one spirits-specific federal action was announced inside the May window, the market resolves YES.
Reyes Beverage Group’s own May 29, 2026 press release explicitly states that at the end of business that day it "will have officially closed" its acquisition of RNDC’s operations in 11 named markets, satisfying the requirement for a public corporate confirmation of closing and operational handoff for the first wave of states before 23:59 ET on May 31, 2026. This is corroborated by multiple industry trade sources summarizing the deal as closed.
Yahoo Finance's historical data, which the market explicitly designates as the resolution source, shows BF.B closing at about $25.72 on May 29, 2026 and at a clearly higher price on May 1, 2026, and this May 29 figure is corroborated by Brown-Forman's own historic prices tool, Public.com, and Morningstar, so May 29, 2026 did not close higher than May 1, 2026.
Yahoo Finance historical data shows MGPI closed around $20.34 on May 1, 2026 and around $17.65 on May 29, 2026, so the May 29 close is clearly lower than the May 1 close; this is corroborated by StockAnalysis and MGPI’s own historical data.
Both Bar-Solution and Fred Minnick reproduce the official Tales of the Cocktail Top 10 Nominees announcement for 2026, and their identical Best New U.S. Cocktail Bar lists include Donna’s in Houston, Texas, satisfying the condition that at least one Texas venue appears in the Top 10.
The official 2026 Top 10 list for Best U.S. Restaurant Bar, as published by Tales of the Cocktail Foundation and corroborated by Bar-Solution and The Spirits Business, contains only one New York City venue (Bar Madonna — Brooklyn, NY), which is fewer than the three NYC venues required by the market’s criteria.
Eater NY clearly published a rooftop summer drinking guide, 'Where to Drink on a Rooftop in NYC This Summer,' on 2026-05-06, which falls within the May 1–22 window and directly satisfies the rooftop/warm-weather guide requirement.
The official Tales of the Cocktail Foundation Top 10 list for Best U.S. Cocktail Bar, published May 21, 2026, lists ten venues in New York, Chicago, Washington DC, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, but none with a Brooklyn address; the only New York entries are in Manhattan, so there is no Brooklyn venue on the list.
The official Tales of the Cocktail Foundation Top 10 list for the 2026 Best U.S. Bar Team category names ten bars, none of which is a Death & Co venue; this is corroborated by both the full nominee list and a secondary trade publication summary.
Searches of Mr Black's official Instagram feed, its 2026 news/blog, and 2026 PR/press mentions show no announcement of any collaboration product, partner event, or co-marketing campaign explicitly tied to International Cold Brew Day 2026 before May 15, 2026, so the condition for a YES resolution is not met.
Within May 1–15, 2026, Shanken News Daily reports one new flavored spirits SKU (Caliente cinnamon-flavored Blanco Tequila on May 6), but it is from John Anthony Wine & Spirits/Lo Siento, which is not a DISCUS top‑10 U.S. spirits company by volume. Other in-window flavor launches relate to beer/malt (Modelo Cheladas) or mixers (Bene), so there is no qualifying flavored spirits SKU from a top‑10 DISCUS company in the specified window.
Review of SEC EDGAR 8-K filings during the window, including all specified companies and a broader 8-K search, shows no current report by a major spirits distributor announcing a state market exit or similar event by the deadline; media coverage of RNDC's California withdrawal does not involve an 8-K filing and therefore does not meet the resolution criteria.
Review of SEC EDGAR for Pernod Ricard (CIK 0001111928) confirms no Form 8-K filings in the May 12–16, 2026 window, and Pernod Ricard’s official news and regulatory pages show no press release in that period announcing a major brand divestiture, discontinuation, or exit.
The official Becle 1Q26 earnings release is the strongest primary source and shows net sales of Ps. 7,405 million versus Ps. 9,628 million in 1Q25, a 23.1% decline. That is well below the 8.0% growth threshold.
EDGAR company pages and a date-bounded EDGAR 8-K search show no Form 8-K between May 12–16, 2026 from known publicly traded large spirits distributors (e.g., Molson Coors, Diageo) that reports any brand exit, delisting, or discontinuation in a US state, so the criterion for a YES resolution is not met.
Review of Pernod Ricard’s own newsroom and all-press-releases archive shows no qualifying acquisition, investment, or brand partnership announcement between May 11 and May 14, 2026, and major newswires like Reuters and WSJ likewise report no such deal, so the condition for YES was not met.
Checking The Spirits Business news index and homepage for 4–10 May 2026 shows no article labeled as 'Spirit of the Week' or an equivalent weekly spirits spotlight, and the in-window features that mention tequila (such as the April marketing round-up) are not structured as a weekly product-focused column. This supports resolving the market as NO.
Review of the official James Beard Foundation News and Media Center pages shows no press release announcing 2026 semifinalists posted by May 12, 2026 23:59 UTC, so the condition for YES was not met.
The official Q4 FY2026 earnings release on ir.cbrands.com reports beer net sales of about $1.73 billion, which is well below the $2.1 billion consensus threshold, so the condition for a YES outcome is not met.
Becle’s own Q1 2026 earnings release on ir.becle.com states tequila net revenues of about MXN 4.7 billion, which is below the 5B MXN threshold, corroborated by Reuters’ report citing the same figure.
Brown-Forman’s own May 9, 2026 Q4 FY2026 earnings release and conference call clearly state that organic net sales grew 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, which does not exceed the 2% threshold.
The SEC Form 6-K for Diageo's Q3 2026 trading statement and Diageo's own press release both state that organic net sales grew 0.3% in the quarter, which is well below 3%, so the condition for a YES outcome is not met.
Checking Pernod Ricard’s official newsroom and press release listings for May 5–10, 2026 shows no press release that fits the specified criteria of a brand exit, delist/delistment, state departure, or distributor split by May 10, so the condition for YES was not met.
Checking grancentenario.com/news, the broader official site, and cached/archived views for early May 2026 shows no announcement or press release mentioning Rápido Gringo Test results or participation by May 8, so the condition for YES is not met.
Two primary Shanken News Daily articles within window explicitly name RNDC brand exits (e.g., suppliers to Reyes in California), directly satisfying criteria. Published May 4 and May 7, before May 8 23:59 UTC.
Sazerac did not announce a Brown-Forman deal by Thursday close on May 8, 2026. The only major Brown-Forman story in that window was the collapse of Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman merger talks, reported by Vinetur and AInvest on May 8-9, 2026, which handed Diageo a competitive reprieve and exposed governance friction inside Brown-Forman. No Sazerac announcement, no 8-K filing, no press release from either party naming Sazerac. This market resolves NO based on the absence of any qualifying Sazerac-Brown-Forman transaction in the window.
No evidence of any Federal Register notice listing UK whisky tariff revocation by May 6; primary sources confirm announcement but explicitly state no official document released. Trade Compliance Resource Hub tracker on May 7 confirms absence.
He didn't post 5/4
Post-date check (May 5, 2026) confirms all four official accounts published zero qualifying feed posts or Reels on May 4 ET. Primary source verification via direct profile inspection.
Current prices from Kraken ($79.17) and Google Finance (low $78.25) on May 5 pre-market are below $79.70, strongly indicating Monday's NYSE close was ≤$79.70. Yahoo Finance official close unavailable in results but other sources align with NO; admin should verify primary source.
Investing.com reports BF.B closing price on May 4, 2026 at $25.46, below $25.55; this aligns with resolution source (Yahoo Finance style) but requires admin verification on Yahoo Finance as primary source of truth. Brown-Forman official site confirms reference close.
Robinhood explicitly states May 4 close at $19.40, equal to prior Friday's $19.40, resolving NO per criteria. Official IR site shows intraday last at $18.90 (post-1PM ET), consistent with <= $19.40 close; lacks Yahoo Finance but strongest available primary evidence.
Evidence shows STZ closed at $152.82 on May 1 (Friday), matching the reference close; no May 4 data found as markets have not opened by 4 AM UTC May 5. Company IR and Investing.com confirm the Friday close exactly at threshold.
Trick Dog, the San Francisco cocktail bar in the Mission District, was named Best US Cocktail Bar at the 2025 Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards. Because the winner is a San Francisco venue and not a New York City bar, this market resolves NO. Tales of the Cocktail publishes the full 2025 winners list on the Spirited Awards archive and confirmed the outcome at its New Orleans ceremony in July 2025.
Rebekah Frazier of Bespoke won the Season 14 Mid-Atlantic Regional at Howard Theatre on March 16, 2026.
Becca Petersen of Bar Bambi won the Season 14 Midwest Regional at Thalia Hall on February 23, 2026.
These markets are no longer accepting predictions. Resolution publishes when the underlying event clears.
Markets we could not resolve cleanly. Scores were refunded. No Brier impact.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 2).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 3).
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Flash void: confidence 6 below 7.
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (0).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 3.
Flash void: ambiguous outcome (null), confidence 2.
Voided: not a real Spirited Awards category. Replaced by full category coverage.
Voided: not a real Spirited Awards category. Replaced by full category coverage.
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: passes inconsistent (other_finalist/lovers_bar).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: passes inconsistent (other/null).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (6).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: passes inconsistent (no/yes).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (1).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: passes inconsistent (no/null).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (6).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (2).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (7).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Auto-voided after 2nd consecutive skip: low confidence (3).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 1).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 3).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 2).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 3).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 2).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 3).
Sweep void: Ambiguous suggested outcome (null, confidence 2).
Missing at least two primary sources, specifically the required SEC EDGAR 8-K filing by Constellation Brands Inc. on May 9, 2026, with Q3 2026 net sales growth data versus May 6 consensus.
Voided by accuracy audit 2026-05-05; see verdict_all.json
Voided by accuracy audit 2026-05-05; see verdict_all.json