How Liquor Bets works.
Liquor Bets is a free prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. You assign a probability to questions about M&A, awards, legislation, and openings. Markets resolve from public sources. Your accuracy is scored using Brier scoring. The lowest mean Brier wins the month. No real money. No card required.
What is Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. The platform runs forecasting questions about beverage alcohol M&A, James Beard winners, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, hospitality legislation, and major industry openings. It is built and operated by Jason Littrell, a hospitality consultant and the publisher of The Spirits Wire weekly news brief.
The product positions itself as Bloomberg-meets-bar. Editorial in tone, free in access, focused on calibrated forecasting rather than gambling. There is no card required, no premium tier, and no path from points to cash. Liquor Bets is industry infrastructure.
How does it work in three steps?
- 01.Pick a market. Browse open markets at /markets. Each one has a clear question, a named primary source, and a resolution date.
- 02.Drop a probability. Assign a forecast between 1 and 99 percent. You can update your forecast until the market closes, which is 24 hours before resolution.
- 03.Get scored. When the market resolves from its public source, your forecast is scored using a Brier score. Lower scores are better. The lowest mean Brier across resolved markets wins the month.
What can you forecast on Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets runs prediction markets in five categories:
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| M&A | Beverage alcohol acquisitions. Will a named acquirer close a deal by a stated date. |
| Awards | James Beard Foundation, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, Eater lists, drinks media honors. |
| Hospitality | Major openings by stated deadlines, format launches, industry milestones. |
| Legislation | State and federal hospitality legislation. Will a named bill pass by a stated date. |
| Issues | Industry-wide questions resolved by trade press, surveys of record, or public data. |
We do not run markets on whether a specific bar will fail, fold, or go under. We never run markets that root for closures. The hospitality industry is hard enough without a public scoreboard betting against operators.
How does Brier scoring work?
Brier scoring measures how well-calibrated your probability forecasts are. The formula is simple: score equals (forecast minus outcome) squared.
- Predicted 80 percent on a yes-no question, answer is yes: score = 0.04
- Predicted 80 percent on a yes-no question, answer is no: score = 0.64
- Predicted 50 percent on anything: score = 0.25
Lower scores are better. For multiple-choice markets, picking the correct option gives you (1 minus p) squared and picking the wrong one gives you p squared. The monthly leaderboard ranks forecasters by mean Brier across resolved markets, with a minimum of five resolved predictions to qualify.
How do markets resolve?
Every Liquor Bets market has a named primary source declared at launch. When the resolution date arrives, the outcome is determined using that source plus a public evidence trail. Every resolved market is published on /resolutions with the source, evidence items, and a confidence score. Public receipts.
If a market cannot be resolved cleanly because the underlying event was canceled, postponed, or rendered ambiguous, we void it. Voided markets do not count toward your monthly Brier average.
Is Liquor Bets free?
Yes. Liquor Bets is 100 percent free. There is no card required at signup, no subscription, no premium tier, no upsell. The product runs on points only. There is no path to convert points to cash. The platform stays free permanently.
Revenue comes from sponsorship of the leaderboard, the weekly Spirits Wire newsletter, and Jason Littrell's consulting work. The forecasting product itself is industry infrastructure, not a financial product.
How is Liquor Bets different from Polymarket and Kalshi?
Liquor Bets is free, points-based, and focused exclusively on the spirits and hospitality industry. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money prediction platforms regulated as financial products, with markets covering politics, sports, crypto, and macroeconomics.
| Liquor Bets | Polymarket / Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Real money | No | Yes |
| Card required | No | Yes |
| Focus | Spirits and bar industry | Politics, sports, crypto, macro |
| Audience | Bartenders, operators, brands, drinks media | Retail traders |
| Scoring | Brier-based public leaderboard | Cash payouts |
Who is Liquor Bets for?
Liquor Bets is for the spirits and bar industry. Bartenders, operators, brand reps, distributors, sommeliers, drinks journalists, and anyone with a take on where the business is going. The platform is designed for industry insiders to test their calibration in public, build a track record, and contribute to a shared scoreboard of who actually saw what coming.
Who built Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets is built and operated by Jason Littrell, a hospitality consultant, systems builder, and 20-year industry veteran. He is a Death and Co alum, the author of Bartender as a Business, and the publisher of The Spirits Wire, the weekly spirits industry news brief. Liquor Bets is a community asset.