Liquor Bets media kit.
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Industry forecasters predict M&A, awards, legislation, and openings. Markets resolve from public sources. Crowd consensus on every open market is public and citable. Founder is Jason Littrell, based in New York City.
Fact sheet
- Product
- Liquor Bets
- Founder
- Jason Littrell
- Headquarters
- New York, NY
- Founded
- 2026
- Pricing
- Free. Points only. No real money.
- Open markets
- 156
- Resolved markets
- 1
- Scoring
- Brier rule. Lowest mean Brier wins the month.
- Press contact
- press@jlittrell.com
Founder bio
Jason Littrell is the founder of Liquor Bets. He spent 10 years behind the bar, including time at Death & Co, and served as USBG NYC president. The last decade has been spent as a hospitality consultant, event producer, and operator working with bars, restaurants, and spirits brands. He is the author of Bartender as a Business and the host of the Hospitality Strategy Lab podcast.
He runs his consulting business with AI and writes about what the next decade of automation does to the hospitality industry. Liquor Bets came out of a simple question: what would the industry actually predict if you gave them a place to do it.
Boilerplate
Short (50 words)
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Forecasters predict M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, hospitality legislation, and notable openings. Markets resolve from public sources and predictions are Brier-scored. Founded in 2026 by Jason Littrell. Based in New York City.
Long (100 words)
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market built for the spirits and hospitality industry. The platform asks industry professionals to forecast the questions the field actually argues about: spirits M&A, James Beard and Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards outcomes, federal and state hospitality legislation, control-state distributor realignments, and notable openings. Every market has explicit resolution criteria and a primary public source. Predictions are scored using the Brier rule, and the leaderboard ranks the industry's most calibrated forecasters. Liquor Bets is free, requires no deposit, and uses points only. It was founded in 2026 by Jason Littrell and is based in New York City.
Current crowd consensus
Top open markets ranked by participation. Consensus is the average crowd probability across all submitted predictions on a given market. Updates in real time as new predictions are submitted.
| Question | Category | Consensus | Predictors | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who wins Best New York Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards? | Awards | 48% | 10 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026? | Awards | 55% | 9 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category? | Awards | 62% | 9 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will the 2026 Spirited Awards World's Best Cocktail Menu go to a US venue? | Awards | 57% | 7 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026? | Hospitality | 61% | 7 | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026? | Hospitality | 39% | 7 | Jan 4, 2027 |
Snapshot generated 2026-05-04. For a custom data pull, source verification, or commentary on a specific forecast, email press@jlittrell.com.
What journalists can quote
- Crowd consensus percentages on any open market, with attribution to Liquor Bets.
- The boilerplate above, in full or in part, in articles or press materials.
- Founder Jason Littrell, on background or on record, for commentary on spirits M&A, hospitality industry trends, and prediction markets.
- Resolved-market evidence and confidence scores, published on the resolutions page.
FAQ
What is Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Industry people forecast M&A activity, James Beard and Spirited Awards outcomes, hospitality legislation, and notable openings. There is no real money. Predictions are scored using the Brier rule. The leaderboard ranks the most calibrated forecasters in the industry.
Who built it?
Jason Littrell built Liquor Bets. He spent 10 years behind the bar, including time at Death & Co, served as USBG NYC president, and has spent the last 10 years as a hospitality consultant, event producer, and operator. Liquor Bets is run from New York City.
Is this gambling?
No. Liquor Bets is free to play, requires no card or deposit, and uses points only. There is no cash-out, no real-money settlement, and no wagering. The product is closer to a calibration tool and an industry sentiment tracker than a betting market.
Where do the predictions come from?
Forecasters on Liquor Bets are drawn from the spirits, bar, and hospitality industry. Each market shows a live crowd consensus that updates as new predictions come in. Liquor Bets makes consensus data available to journalists on request.
How do markets resolve?
Every market has explicit resolution criteria and a primary public source. When the underlying event happens, the market closes and Liquor Bets publishes a public receipt on the resolutions page with named evidence, a confidence score, and a link to the source. Predictions are scored with the Brier rule against the realized outcome.
Can journalists quote crowd consensus numbers?
Yes. Crowd consensus on any open market is publicly visible on the market page, and journalists are welcome to cite the figure with attribution to Liquor Bets. For embargoed analysis, custom data pulls, or commentary on industry forecasts, contact press@jlittrell.com.
What kinds of questions does Liquor Bets cover?
Active categories include spirits M&A, hospitality and beverage industry awards (James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards), hospitality legislation, control-state and distributor realignments, leadership changes at major beverage alcohol companies, and notable openings.
Is Liquor Bets affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, or PredictIt?
No. Liquor Bets is independent. It is industry-specific, free, and runs on points rather than money. The audience is hospitality and spirits industry professionals, not a general retail forecasting audience.
Press contact
Jason Littrell
Founder, Liquor Bets
press@jlittrell.com
New York, NY