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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
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Resolution receipt

Will the US federal government announce any new spirits-specific tariff action in May 2026?

YES
LegislationResolved June 4, 2026by Jason Littrell
Summary

The US federal government announced spirits-specific tariff action in May 2026 when President Trump agreed to remove US tariffs on UK-origin whisky, including single malt Scotch, timed to King Charles state visit. The exemption was tracked in the Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker and covered by NYT, CNBC, Bloomberg, and The Whiskey Wash between April 30 and May 6. Separately, the Distilled Spirits Council CEO testified before Congress on May 8 on whiskey tariffs. Because at least one spirits-specific federal action was announced inside the May window, the market resolves YES.

Evidence
01
Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker – UK-Origin Whiskey Exemption
tradecomplianceresourcehub.com
url
https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2026/06/03/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/
Captured Jun 4, 2026
02
What Happened This Month In International Trade (May 2026)
mondaq.com
url
https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/international-trade-investment/1794780/what-happened-this-month-in-international-trade-may-2026
Captured Jun 4, 2026
03
Brazil Section 301 Actionability and Proposed Action (FRN draft)
ustr.gov
url
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/Brazil%20Section%20301%20Actionability%20and%20Proposed%20Action%20FRN%206-1-26%20Final.pdf
Captured Jun 4, 2026
04
Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker – UK-Origin Whiskey Exemption
tradecomplianceresourcehub.com
url
https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2026/05/28/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/
Captured Jun 4, 2026
05
Federal Register – May 28, 2026 (All Documents)
federalregister.gov
url
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/05/28
Captured Jun 4, 2026
06
Harmonized Tariff Information – HTS Announcements
usitc.gov
url
https://www.usitc.gov/harmonized_tariff_information
Captured Jun 4, 2026
Confidence score
8/ 10

10 = primary source confirmed, no ambiguity. 7-9 = strong evidence, minor interpretation. Below 7 = material uncertainty; market should have been voided.

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if any US federal action (executive order, USTR announcement, Treasury action, or signed legislation) specifically targeting imported spirits is publicly announced between May 1 and May 31, 2026. Country-of-origin-specific actions count. Resolves NO if no such action is announced.

Primary source

USTR and US Treasury announcements; major trade press confirmation

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