Liquor Bets · est. 2026
What's the line on hospitality?
We bet on the industry's wins, not its losses.
Forecast spirits M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, legislation, and the market intelligence nobody else is running calibration scores on. Free. Play money. Real signal.
Open markets
53
Categories
5
Cost to play
$0
How it works
Three steps. No money in. No money out.
01
Pick a market.
Real questions about the spirits and bar industry. Each one has a named source and a resolution date.
02
Drop a probability.
Anywhere from 1% to 99%. Think calibration, not certainty. You can update until the market closes.
03
Get scored.
We resolve from a public source. Brier score = (forecast - outcome)2. Lower is better. Lowest mean Brier wins the month.
This week's wire
Hot markets
Awardscloses in 0h
Did the 2025 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar winner come from New York City?
Crowd
51% YES
Predictors
6
Issuescloses in 8d
Will The Spirits Business 'Spirit of the Week' feature a tequila or mezcal expression in the first full week of May 2026?
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Awardscloses in 13d
Will Punch publish at least 3 articles tagged 'classic cocktail' or 'cocktail history' in the first two weeks of May 2026?
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Issuescloses in 13d
Will Shanken News Daily report at least one new flavored spirits product launch from a top-10 US spirits brand in the first two weeks of May 2026?
Crowd
39% YES
Predictors
3
This month
Top 10
The board fills out as markets resolve. Minimum five resolved predictions to qualify.