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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
Liquor Bets · est. 2026

What's your prediction?

We bet on the industry's wins, not its losses.

Forecast spirits M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, legislation, and the stuff the industry actually argues about. 100% Free.

Browse all marketsGot a market in mind? Suggest one.
Open markets
120
Categories
5
Cost to play
$0
Awards
closes in 8d

Who wins Best U.S. Bar Team at the 2026 Spirited Awards?

1 forecasters·Crowd: Sip & Guzzle — New York, NY (70%)

Multiple options on this market. Open the full market to make your call.

See the options
Browse by topic

What the room is arguing about

All markets →
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
2026 Spirited Awards
Every Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards Top 4 finalist, in one slate.
Flash

Closes in hours

Fresh from the wire. Short windows, fast resolution.

All flash markets →
Flashcloses in 1d 0h
M&A

Will Johnson Brothers announce a new multi-state partnership with a major spirits supplier within 72 hours?

johnson_brotherssupplier
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Flashcloses in 8d
How it works

Three steps. No money in. No money out.

01
Pick a market.

Real questions about the spirits and bar industry. Each one has a named source and a resolution date.

02
Drop a probability.

Anywhere from 1% to 99%. Think calibration, not certainty. You can update until the market closes.

03
Get scored.

We resolve from a public source. Brier score = (forecast - outcome)2. Lower is better. Lowest mean Brier wins the month.

This week's wire

Hot markets

All markets →
Awardscloses in 8d

Who wins Best U.S. Brand Ambassador at the 2026 Spirited Awards?

spirited_awardsspirited_awards_2026awardstotc
YES 81%
Crowd
This month

Top 10

Full board →

The board fills out as markets resolve. Minimum five resolved predictions to qualify.

Elsewhere in the network

The same operators. Different windows into the industry.

BuildoutFeed
Every NYC restaurant opening, in one feed.
The Cocktail Bar League
NYC's cocktail bars, judged head-to-head.
Jason Littrell
The systems behind everything on this ring.
Distributor Consolidation
The top-tier distributors are reshuffling supplier books, exiting states, and rebranding.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.
Speed Rack
Speed Rack is the international all-women and femme bartending competition.
Awards

Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?

awardstotcspirited_awards_2026spirited_awards
NO 92%
Crowd
8% YES
Predictors
1
Cesar Sandoval — Casa Lumbre Spirits (81%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 8d

Who wins U.S. Bartender of the Year at the 2026 Spirited Awards?

spirited_awardsspirited_awards_2026awardstotc
YES 80%
Crowd
Juliette Larrouy — schmuck., New York, NY (80%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 8d

Who wins Best New International Cocktail Bar at the 2026 Spirited Awards?

spirited_awardsspirited_awards_2026awardstotc
YES 50%
Crowd
De Vie — Paris, France (50%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 8d

Who wins Best New Cocktail or Bartending Book at the 2026 Spirited Awards?

spirited_awardsspirited_awards_2026awardstotc
YES 68%
Crowd
The Madrusan Cocktail Companion by Michael Madrusan and Zara Madrusan (68%)
Predictors
1
JOHNSON BROTHERS ANNOUno predictions yetcloses in 1d 0h·WHO WINS BEST US BAR TSip & Guzzle — New York, NY (70%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US BRANDCesar Sandoval — Casa Lumbre Spirits (81%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS US BARTENDERJuliette Larrouy — schmuck., New York, NY (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW INTEDe Vie — Paris, France (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW COCKThe Madrusan Cocktail Companion by Michael Madrusan and Zara Madrusan (68%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATARCA — Tulum, Mexico (71%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATBar Mauro — Mexico City, Mexico (69%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW BOOKThe Comic Book History of the Cocktail by David Wondrich, illustrated by Dean Kotz (66%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US BAR MLP O'Brien (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATClaudia Cabrera — Fernet Branca (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATLibrary Bar at the Fairmont Royal York — Toronto, ON, Canada (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW US CVandell — Los Angeles, CA (65%)closes in 8d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS C6% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW SPIRGiffard Non-Alcoholic Spritz Liqueur (65%)closes in 8d·NON-US VENUE WIN 202680% YEScloses in 8d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS W40% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATShingo Gokan (66%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS WORLDS BEST SSalón de Agave — Mexico City, Mexico (60%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US RESTAArnaud's French 75 Bar — New Orleans, LA (70%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US HOTELDear Irving on Hudson at the Aliz Hotel — New York, NY (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS INTERNATIONALHedda Bruce — Tjoget, Stockholm, Sweden (50%)closes in 8d·ANY 2026 SPIRITED AWAR8% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US COCKTSUPERBUENO — New York, NY (65%)closes in 8d·JOHNSON BROTHERS ANNOUno predictions yetcloses in 1d 0h·WHO WINS BEST US BAR TSip & Guzzle — New York, NY (70%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US BRANDCesar Sandoval — Casa Lumbre Spirits (81%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS US BARTENDERJuliette Larrouy — schmuck., New York, NY (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW INTEDe Vie — Paris, France (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW COCKThe Madrusan Cocktail Companion by Michael Madrusan and Zara Madrusan (68%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATARCA — Tulum, Mexico (71%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATBar Mauro — Mexico City, Mexico (69%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW BOOKThe Comic Book History of the Cocktail by David Wondrich, illustrated by Dean Kotz (66%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US BAR MLP O'Brien (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATClaudia Cabrera — Fernet Branca (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATLibrary Bar at the Fairmont Royal York — Toronto, ON, Canada (50%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW US CVandell — Los Angeles, CA (65%)closes in 8d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS C6% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST NEW SPIRGiffard Non-Alcoholic Spritz Liqueur (65%)closes in 8d·NON-US VENUE WIN 202680% YEScloses in 8d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS W40% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST INTERNATShingo Gokan (66%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS WORLDS BEST SSalón de Agave — Mexico City, Mexico (60%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US RESTAArnaud's French 75 Bar — New Orleans, LA (70%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US HOTELDear Irving on Hudson at the Aliz Hotel — New York, NY (80%)closes in 8d·WHO WINS INTERNATIONALHedda Bruce — Tjoget, Stockholm, Sweden (50%)closes in 8d·ANY 2026 SPIRITED AWAR8% YEScloses in 8d·WHO WINS BEST US COCKTSUPERBUENO — New York, NY (65%)closes in 8d·
By topic

What the industry is calling

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Awards38Spirited Awards32Spirited Awards 202632Totc32Data9M&A9US8International850 Best7Sgws6Uncle Nearest5Thc4