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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
Liquor Bets · est. 2026

What's your prediction?

We bet on the industry's wins, not its losses.

Forecast spirits M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, legislation, and the stuff the industry actually argues about. 100% Free.

Browse all marketsGot a market in mind? Suggest one.
Open markets
85
Categories
5
Cost to play
$0
Legislation
closes in 7h 16m

Will any US state enact a canned-cocktail tax, ABV, or licensing bill before August 1, 2026?

1 forecasters·Crowd: 55% YES
50%
1% NO50%99% YES
If YES
0
If NO
0
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Browse by topic

What the room is arguing about

All markets →
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
2026 Spirited Awards
Every Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards Top 4 finalist, in one slate.
How it works

Three steps. No money in. No money out.

01
Pick a market.

Real questions about the spirits and bar industry. Each one has a named source and a resolution date.

02
Drop a probability.

Anywhere from 1% to 99%. Think calibration, not certainty. You can update until the market closes.

03
Get scored.

We resolve from a public source. Brier score = (forecast - outcome)2. Lower is better. Lowest mean Brier wins the month.

This week's wire

Hot markets

All markets →
M&Acloses in 15d

Will Diageo name a permanent CEO before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageoleadershipceo-search
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
This month

Top 10

Full board →

The board fills out as markets resolve. Minimum five resolved predictions to qualify.

Elsewhere in the network

The same operators. Different windows into the industry.

BuildoutFeed
Every NYC restaurant opening, in one feed.
The Cocktail Bar League
NYC's cocktail bars, judged head-to-head.
Jason Littrell
The systems behind everything on this ring.
Distributor Consolidation
The top-tier distributors are reshuffling supplier books, exiting states, and rebranding.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.
Speed Rack
Speed Rack is the international all-women and femme bartending competition.
Legislationcloses in 31d

Will any US state enact a new alcohol cancer warning sign or label requirement before September 1, 2026?

legislationwarning-labelspublic-healthstate-policy
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 31d

Will Diageo issue a downward revision to its FY2026 organic operating profit guidance before September 1, 2026?

earningsspiritsdiageobig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 31d

Will Brown-Forman or Pernod Ricard publicly engage in new merger or major-acquisition talks before September 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbrown_formanpernod_ricard
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
ANY US STATE ENACT CAN55% YEScloses in 7h 16m·DIAGEO NAME PERMANENT65% YEScloses in 15d·ANY US STATE ENACT NEW20% YEScloses in 31d·DIAGEO ISSUE DOWNWARD55% YEScloses in 31d·BROWN-FORMAN PERNOD RI55% YEScloses in 31d·FEDERAL COURT GRANT GA30% YEScloses in 32d·WHICH TEQUILA TOPS 202Jose Cuervo (65%)closes in 44d·CONSTELLATION BRANDS A70% YEScloses in 64d·NYS SLA NEW ON-PREMISE20% YEScloses in 64d·FDA ISSUE FORMAL GUIDA25% YEScloses in 64d·EU ADJUST ITS TARIFF A35% YEScloses in 64d·WHICH NYC BAR RANK HIGDouble Chicken Please (65%)closes in 67d·WORLDS 50 BEST BARS 2021% YEScloses in 67d·HOW MANY NYC BARS MAKE3-4 (65%)closes in 67d·MORE THREE NYC VENUES45% YEScloses in 76d·ANY WORLDS 50 BEST BAR8% YEScloses in 76d·ANY 2026 WORLDS 50 BES30% YEScloses in 76d·LEAST THREE WORLDS 5085% YEScloses in 76d·US TOP-20 TEQUILA BRAN35% YEScloses in 95d·ANY COCKTAIL-FOCUSED N30% YEScloses in 105d·2026 KENTUCKY BOURBON55% YEScloses in 137d·ANY TOP HOSPITALITY PU80% YEScloses in 153d·UNCLE NEAREST SOLD NEW45% YEScloses in 153d·FAWN WEAVER STILL CEO40% YEScloses in 153d·ANY US STATE ENACT CAN55% YEScloses in 7h 16m·DIAGEO NAME PERMANENT65% YEScloses in 15d·ANY US STATE ENACT NEW20% YEScloses in 31d·DIAGEO ISSUE DOWNWARD55% YEScloses in 31d·BROWN-FORMAN PERNOD RI55% YEScloses in 31d·FEDERAL COURT GRANT GA30% YEScloses in 32d·WHICH TEQUILA TOPS 202Jose Cuervo (65%)closes in 44d·CONSTELLATION BRANDS A70% YEScloses in 64d·NYS SLA NEW ON-PREMISE20% YEScloses in 64d·FDA ISSUE FORMAL GUIDA25% YEScloses in 64d·EU ADJUST ITS TARIFF A35% YEScloses in 64d·WHICH NYC BAR RANK HIGDouble Chicken Please (65%)closes in 67d·WORLDS 50 BEST BARS 2021% YEScloses in 67d·HOW MANY NYC BARS MAKE3-4 (65%)closes in 67d·MORE THREE NYC VENUES45% YEScloses in 76d·ANY WORLDS 50 BEST BAR8% YEScloses in 76d·ANY 2026 WORLDS 50 BES30% YEScloses in 76d·LEAST THREE WORLDS 5085% YEScloses in 76d·US TOP-20 TEQUILA BRAN35% YEScloses in 95d·ANY COCKTAIL-FOCUSED N30% YEScloses in 105d·2026 KENTUCKY BOURBON55% YEScloses in 137d·ANY TOP HOSPITALITY PU80% YEScloses in 153d·UNCLE NEAREST SOLD NEW45% YEScloses in 153d·FAWN WEAVER STILL CEO40% YEScloses in 153d·
By topic

What the industry is calling

All topics →
Awards34Spirited Awards27Spirited Awards 202627Totc27Data9M&A9US850 Best7International7Distribution6
Sgws
6
Uncle Nearest5