Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. This page answers the most common questions about how the platform works, how scoring works, and how it differs from real-money prediction sites.
A prediction market is a forecasting tool where people commit to a probability on a future event. The aggregated probabilities tend to be more accurate than individual experts because they reward calibration over confidence.
Read moreNo. Liquor Bets is not real-money gambling. It is a free, points-based forecasting platform. There is no money in, no money out, and no card required. We are a public scoreboard for industry calibration.
Read moreAnyone can play Liquor Bets. It is free, requires no card, and is open to bartenders, operators, brand reps, journalists, distributors, and anyone with a take on the spirits and bar industry. You only need an email address.
Read moreLiquor Bets runs markets on objective, public outcomes the trade press, regulators, or award bodies will resolve cleanly. Categories include spirits M&A, awards, hospitality issues, and legislation. We never run markets on whether a specific bar or brand will fail.
Read moreYes. Anyone can suggest a market. Use the /markets/suggest form to pitch a question. Strong suggestions have an objective resolution criteria, a named public source, and a clear deadline. We turn good suggestions into live markets.
Read moreYes. Liquor Bets is 100% free. There is no card required, no subscription, no premium tier. The product runs on points only.
Read moreBrier score is a calibration measure. We compute (forecast minus outcome) squared. If you predicted 80% and the answer was yes, your score is 0.04. If the answer was no, your score is 0.64. Lower is better.
Read moreEach market has a named primary source declared at launch. When the resolution date hits, we resolve the outcome using that source plus a public evidence trail. Every resolved market is published on /resolutions with receipts.
Read moreLiquor Bets runs prediction markets on James Beard Foundation winners across categories like Outstanding Bar, Outstanding Restaurant, Best Chef regionals, and book awards. Markets resolve from the official Beard Foundation announcements at the annual ceremony.
Read moreLiquor Bets runs prediction markets on beverage alcohol mergers and acquisitions. Markets cover whether named acquirers will close deals by stated dates, with resolution from public sources like SEC filings, trade press, and official press releases.
Read moreYes. Clinical and observational data show GLP-1 users (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound) drink 30-50 percent less alcohol on average. The magnitude at industry scale is still debated, but every major spirits CEO has flagged it as a real long-term volume question.
Read moreThe bourbon glut is the 2024-2026 oversupply of aged American whiskey that followed a decade of producer expansion. Barrel inventories outpaced demand growth, pushing wholesale prices down and triggering brand sales, layoffs, and category resets at major distillers.
Read moreAgave prices are falling in 2026 because Mexican growers overplanted during the 2018-2022 tequila boom, and harvest volumes are now hitting the market just as US tequila demand cooled. The peso-denominated input cost has dropped roughly 60-70 percent from peak.
Read moreSome will. The 2023-2026 category reset is winnowing celebrity tequila brands down to the ones with real distribution, real volume, and real brand equity beyond the founder. Most second-tier celebrity labels will be sold, merged, or quietly discontinued.
Read morePartially. THC and hemp-derived seltzers are taking measurable share from beer and spirits at retail in legal states, especially among 21-34 year olds. The category is still small in absolute terms but growing fast, with Cantrip, BRĒZ, Hi5, and major brewer launches leading the format.
Read moreTipping reform is the ongoing US restaurant policy debate around eliminating the tipped minimum wage, replacing tipping with service charges, raising tip credits, or moving to all-inclusive pricing. State and city legislation in 2024-2026 has reopened the question.
Read moreNo transaction has been announced. Uncle Nearest is privately held by founder Fawn Weaver, and rumored buyers reported by trade press include Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Brown-Forman, and Bacardi. Liquor Bets runs markets on whether a named acquirer announces a deal by stated dates.
Read moreLiquor Bets runs prediction markets on James Beard winners across Outstanding Bar, Outstanding Restaurant, Best Chef regionals, and book awards. Crowd consensus on the platform is built from operator and bartender votes. Browse the open markets above for the current forecasts.
Read moreBrown-Forman has divested several smaller brands in 2024-2026 as part of portfolio focus. Sazerac is a frequent buyer of mid-tier American whiskey labels. Liquor Bets runs markets on whether named Brown-Forman brands are sold to Sazerac or any acquirer by stated dates.
Read moreNo sale has been announced. Diageo paid up to $1 billion for Casamigos in 2017 and has publicly committed to the brand. Trade press has speculated since 2024 about a possible divestment as the celebrity tequila category resets. Liquor Bets runs markets on whether a sale is announced by stated dates.
Read more2026 is shaping up as a buyer's market for celebrity tequila and aged American whiskey labels, and a seller's market for premium agave, non-alc, and RTD brands with real volume. Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman, Sazerac, and Bacardi are all named buyers or sellers of something.
Read moreTariffs raise landed cost on imported spirits, compress margins for distributors, and shift consumer demand toward domestic alternatives. US tariffs on European spirits (Scotch, cognac, Irish whiskey) and Mexican tequila have been the most-watched trade levers in 2024-2026.
Read moreSpeed Rack is the international all-women and femme bartending competition. Founded in 2011 by Ivy Mix and Lynnette Marrero, it holds regional heats across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and the UK, with the U.S. national final each July at Tales of the Cocktail. Proceeds fund breast cancer research.
Read moreLiquor Bets is free, points-based, and focused exclusively on the spirits and hospitality industry. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money platforms covering politics, sports, and crypto. We are an industry forecasting tool, not a financial product.
Read moreThe Spirits Wire is the weekly AI-generated spirits industry news brief published every Friday at 7am ET. It is produced by Jason Littrell, the same person who built Liquor Bets, and covers M&A, awards, legislation, and industry moves.
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