How Liquor Bets works.
Liquor Bets is a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. This page answers the most common questions about how the platform works, how scoring works, and how it differs from real-money prediction sites.
The Basics
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a forecasting tool where people commit to a probability on a future event. The aggregated probabilities tend to be more accurate than individual experts because they reward calibration over confidence.
Read moreIs Liquor Bets real-money gambling?
No. Liquor Bets is not real-money gambling. It is a free, points-based forecasting platform. There is no money in, no money out, and no card required. We are a public scoreboard for industry calibration.
Read moreWho can play Liquor Bets?
Anyone can play Liquor Bets. It is free, requires no card, and is open to bartenders, operators, brand reps, journalists, distributors, and anyone with a take on the spirits and bar industry. You only need an email address.
Read moreWhat questions can I forecast on Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets runs markets on objective, public outcomes the trade press, regulators, or award bodies will resolve cleanly. Categories include spirits M&A, awards, hospitality issues, and legislation. We never run markets on whether a specific bar or brand will fail.
Read moreCan I suggest a market on Liquor Bets?
Yes. Anyone can suggest a market. Use the /markets/suggest form to pitch a question. Strong suggestions have an objective resolution criteria, a named public source, and a clear deadline. We turn good suggestions into live markets.
Read moreIs Liquor Bets free?
Yes. Liquor Bets is 100% free. There is no card required, no subscription, no premium tier. The product runs on points only. We make money in other ways, like sponsorship of the leaderboard and the weekly Spirits Wire newsletter.
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Scoring & Resolution
How does Brier scoring work on Liquor Bets?
Brier score is a calibration measure. We compute (forecast minus outcome) squared. If you predicted 80% and the answer was yes, your score is 0.04. If the answer was no, your score is 0.64. Lower is better.
Read moreHow do Liquor Bets markets resolve?
Each market has a named primary source declared at launch. When the resolution date hits, we resolve the outcome using that source plus a public evidence trail. Every resolved market is published on /resolutions with receipts.
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Industry Categories
How do James Beard Foundation predictions work on Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets runs prediction markets on James Beard Foundation winners across categories like Outstanding Bar, Outstanding Restaurant, Best Chef regionals, and book awards. Markets resolve from the official Beard Foundation announcements at the annual ceremony.
Read moreHow do spirits M&A predictions work on Liquor Bets?
Liquor Bets runs prediction markets on beverage alcohol mergers and acquisitions. Markets cover whether named acquirers will close deals by stated dates, with resolution from public sources like SEC filings, trade press, and official press releases.
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How We Compare
How is Liquor Bets different from Polymarket or Kalshi?
Liquor Bets is free, points-based, and focused exclusively on the spirits and hospitality industry. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money platforms covering politics, sports, and crypto. We are an industry forecasting tool, not a financial product.
Read moreWhat is The Spirits Wire?
The Spirits Wire is the weekly AI-generated spirits industry news brief published every Friday at 7am ET. It is produced by Jason Littrell, the same person who built Liquor Bets, and covers M&A, awards, legislation, and industry moves.
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