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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
The Liquor Bets Index

What the industry is predicting.

Aggregated forecasts from bartenders, operators, brands, and drinks media on the open questions in spirits and hospitality. Sliced by segment so you can see who agrees and who's looking the other way.

103 open markets103 calls logged
Sharpest disagreement

The markets where industry segments are predicting different outcomes. The bigger the gap, the better the story.

Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026?
0 pt gap
Will Philadelphia win more 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award categories than New York City?
0 pt gap
Will any New York City venue win a 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award on June 15?
0 pt gap
awards·Closes Jun 15
Which 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar finalist will win?
Other finalist
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026?
78%
YES consensus
Operators (1)78%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will Philadelphia win more 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award categories than New York City?
15%
YES consensus
Operators (1)15%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will any New York City venue win a 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award on June 15?
95%
YES consensus
Operators (1)95%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will a James Beard 2026 Outstanding Bar finalist publicly use AI in any operational workflow?
85%
YES consensus
Operators (1)85%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will the 2026 James Beard Awards ceremony include any non-alcoholic toast or zero-proof moment?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jul 1
Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Jul 1
Will Maryland House Bill 736 (RTD cocktail alcoholic beverage tax) be signed into law before July 1, 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jul 1
Will any major spirits group announce a $1B+ acquisition before July 1, 2026?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jul 4
Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?
78%
YES consensus
Operators (1)78%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jul 25
Will Diageo announce a brand divestiture before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?
75%
YES consensus
Operators (1)75%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jul 27
Will Diageo or Brown-Forman publicly engage in new major M&A talks within 90 days of the Pernod/BF breakup?
60%
YES consensus
Operators (1)60%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best New York Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?
Other finalist
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will a non-US venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best International Cocktail Bar?
80%
YES consensus
Operators (1)80%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins International Bar Industry Icon 2026?
Other nominee
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will a New York City venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category?
70%
YES consensus
Operators (1)70%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Best New US Cocktail Bar winner have opened in 2025 or 2026?
92%
YES consensus
Operators (1)92%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best US Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?
Other finalist
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best New US Cocktail Bar in 2026?
Other finalist
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Bartender of the Year winner be a woman?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards World's Best Cocktail Menu go to a US venue?
40%
YES consensus
Operators (1)40%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will a 2026 Spirited Awards category be added or renamed to reflect non-traditional formats?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Aug 1
Will any US state enact a canned-cocktail tax, ABV, or licensing bill before August 1, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Aug 15
Will Diageo name a permanent CEO before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?
65%
YES consensus
Operators (1)65%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Sep 1
Will any US state enact a new alcohol cancer warning sign or label requirement before September 1, 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Sep 1
Will Diageo issue a downward revision to its FY2026 organic operating profit guidance before September 1, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Sep 1
Will Brown-Forman or Pernod Ricard publicly engage in new merger or major-acquisition talks before September 1, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
issues·Closes Sep 1
Will the federal court grant a gag order against Fawn Weaver in the Uncle Nearest receivership?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
awards·Closes Sep 14
Which tequila tops the 2026 Drinks International Brand Champions report?
Jose Cuervo
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
m and a·Closes Oct 4
Will the EU adjust its tariff on American whiskey before October 1, 2026?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Oct 4
Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Oct 4
Will Constellation Brands announce another wine brand divestiture before September 30, 2026?
70%
YES consensus
Operators (1)70%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Oct 4
Will the FDA issue formal guidance on hemp-derived THC in beverages before September 30, 2026?
25%
YES consensus
Operators (1)25%
1 calls
awards·Closes Oct 15
Will more than three NYC venues land on the 2026 World's 50 Best Bars list?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
awards·Closes Oct 15
Will at least three of the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 list at least one zero-proof signature on their flagship menu?
85%
YES consensus
Operators (1)85%
1 calls
awards·Closes Oct 15
Will any 2026 World's 50 Best Bar mention the espresso martini in its winning press write-up?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
awards·Closes Oct 15
Will any World's 50 Best Bar publicly disclose that AI helped design a menu, drink, or guest experience in 2026?
8%
YES consensus
Operators (1)8%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Nov 4
Will a US top-20 tequila brand be acquired by a different parent company before October 31, 2026?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
awards·Closes Nov 14
Will any cocktail-focused NYC venue earn a Michelin star in the 2026 NY State guide?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
awards·Closes Dec 4
Which NYC bar will rank highest on World's 50 Best Bars 2026?
Double Chicken Please
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
awards·Closes Dec 4
How many NYC bars make the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 top 50?
3-4
100% leading
Operators (1)
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 15
Will the 2026 Kentucky bourbon barrel inventory exceed 17 million?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will a top-20 spirits company publicly launch a hemp-derived THC beverage brand in 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will Brown-Forman complete its US control-state distributor realignment across all 18 markets by year-end 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will any A-list celebrity launch a new spirits brand in 2026 with a major distributor at launch?
70%
YES consensus
Operators (1)70%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will at least two celebrity-fronted spirits brands be delisted by major retailers or publicly wound down in 2026?
70%
YES consensus
Operators (1)70%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will a major US chain restaurant pull the espresso martini from its menu in 2026?
25%
YES consensus
Operators (1)25%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Dec 31
Will the EU snap back its 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will Uncle Nearest be sold to a new owner before December 31, 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will mezcal outpace tequila in US off-premise YoY volume growth for any Circana period in 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila change ownership or majority investor in 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?
40%
YES consensus
Operators (1)40%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will US off-premise alcohol dollar sales decline year-over-year for three consecutive Circana four-week periods in 2026?
75%
YES consensus
Operators (1)75%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Dec 31
Will the FDA issue any formal enforcement action against a hemp-derived THC beverage company in 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will more than 5 nationally-known cocktail bars announce expansion into a casual or all-day format in 2026?
75%
YES consensus
Operators (1)75%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Dec 31
Will Mexico retaliate with tariffs on US spirits before December 31, 2026?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will US THC beverage retail dollar sales surpass craft beer for any single Circana four-week period in 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will High Noon overtake White Claw in US off-premise dollar share for any 2026 Circana scan?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
If Uncle Nearest is sold in 2026, will the buyer be a major strategic spirits company?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will a tequila brand outsell Tito's in any single 2026 Circana scan?
10%
YES consensus
Operators (1)10%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will a top-10 American whiskey brand publicly cut its suggested retail price in 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?
85%
YES consensus
Operators (1)85%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will a non-alcoholic spirits brand achieve a unicorn valuation by year-end 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will Athletic Brewing be acquired or go public in 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will any top hospitality publication publish a feature in 2026 declaring AI cocktails are or are not legitimate?
80%
YES consensus
Operators (1)80%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will the word mocktail appear on the cover of any 2026 issue of Imbibe, Punch, or Drinks International?
65%
YES consensus
Operators (1)65%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Dec 31
Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?
75%
YES consensus
Operators (1)75%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Dec 31
Will any state pass legislation in 2026 explicitly banning THC beverages from being sold alongside alcohol?
65%
YES consensus
Operators (1)65%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Dec 31
Will any state pass a 2026 ballot measure or law eliminating the tipped minimum wage?
20%
YES consensus
Operators (1)20%
1 calls
issues·Closes Dec 31
Will any Big 6 spirits CEO name GLP-1 medications as a material headwind on a 2026 earnings call?
65%
YES consensus
Operators (1)65%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Dec 31
Will White Claw's parent Mark Anthony Brands acquire any spirits brand in 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Sazerac and Brown-Forman publicly announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026?
18%
YES consensus
Operators (1)18%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will US imported spirits face new tariffs above 10% before December 31, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?
70%
YES consensus
Operators (1)70%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will the TTB finalize a rule allowing modernized labeling disclosures (alcohol content, allergens, or nutrition facts) before December 31, 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?
25%
YES consensus
Operators (1)25%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will the US federal tipped minimum wage increase before December 31, 2026?
8%
YES consensus
Operators (1)8%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will a US craft distillery raise a Series A or later venture round of $10M or more before December 31, 2026?
40%
YES consensus
Operators (1)40%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Suntory Holdings acquire a non-Japanese spirits brand before December 31, 2026?
40%
YES consensus
Operators (1)40%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Diageo publicly announce a sale, JV, or full divestiture of its China assets in calendar 2026?
25%
YES consensus
Operators (1)25%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will at least 5 US states pass new permanent cocktails-to-go legislation in 2026?
35%
YES consensus
Operators (1)35%
1 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will any US state pass three-tier reform legislation expanding direct-to-consumer spirits shipping in 2026?
10%
YES consensus
Operators (1)10%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will Uber announce a Drizly relaunch or a successor on-demand alcohol delivery platform by December 31, 2026?
15%
YES consensus
Operators (1)15%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?
85%
YES consensus
Operators (1)85%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will at least one of the top-10 US spirits importers publicly announce a price increase of 10% or more attributable to tariffs in 2026?
80%
YES consensus
Operators (1)80%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will the average price of #1 agave azul (Jalisco region) drop below 8 pesos/kilo before December 31, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?
85%
YES consensus
Operators (1)85%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?
25%
YES consensus
Operators (1)25%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will a top-3 global spirits major (Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman) acquire a no/low alcohol brand before December 31, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Pernod Ricard divest at least one of its top-10 brands by global revenue before December 31, 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?
40%
YES consensus
Operators (1)40%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 14
Will US off-premise RTD dollar sales exceed bottled spirits in any monthly NielsenIQ report before year-end?
10%
YES consensus
Operators (1)10%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 31
Will Mexico's tequila production decline year-over-year in 2026 per CRT data?
65%
YES consensus
Operators (1)65%
1 calls
issues·Closes Jan 31
Will any Big 6 spirits company name AI as a strategic priority in their 2026 annual report?
75%
YES consensus
Operators (1)75%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes Feb 28
Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?
55%
YES consensus
Operators (1)55%
1 calls
issues·Closes Feb 28
Will Conor McGregor's Proper Twelve still be in the top 5 Irish whiskey brands by US volume at year-end 2026?
45%
YES consensus
Operators (1)45%
1 calls
issues·Closes Mar 31
Will US whiskey exports to the EU decline by more than 20% YoY in 2026?
60%
YES consensus
Operators (1)60%
1 calls
m and a·Closes Jun 30
If Uncle Nearest is sold by mid-2027, will the announced sale price exceed $300M?
30%
YES consensus
Operators (1)30%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Will the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar award go to a venue outside New York City?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Will the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar winner be a first-time winner of any JBF award?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Which city's venue takes home the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar award?
No calls yet
0 calls

The Liquor Bets Index aggregates every prediction on every open market. Forecasts update in real time. Segment breakdowns require at least one user from that segment to have predicted.

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