The Liquor Bets Index
What the industry is predicting.
Aggregated forecasts from bartenders, operators, brands, and drinks media on the open questions in spirits and hospitality. Sliced by segment so you can see who agrees and who's looking the other way.
26 open markets88 calls logged
Sharpest disagreement
The markets where industry segments are predicting different outcomes. The bigger the gap, the better the story.
Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026?
0 pt gap
Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category?
0 pt gap
Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?
0 pt gap
awards·Closes Jun 15
Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026?
60%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (2)80%
8 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best New York Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?
Finalist 2 (TBA)
43% leading
Enthusiasts (1)
7 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category?
55%
YES consensus
6 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?
55%
YES consensus
6 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?
42%
YES consensus
6 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards World's Best Cocktail Menu go to a US venue?
54%
YES consensus
5 calls
m and a·Closes Oct 4
Will Constellation Brands announce another wine brand divestiture before September 30, 2026?
55%
YES consensus
5 calls
awards·Closes Dec 4
How many NYC bars make the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 top 50?
0-2
40% leading
Enthusiasts (1)
5 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will the TTB finalize a rule allowing modernized labeling disclosures (alcohol content, allergens, or nutrition facts) before December 31, 2026?
49%
YES consensus
5 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will at least 5 US states pass new permanent cocktails-to-go legislation in 2026?
47%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)23%
5 calls
legislation·Closes Oct 4
Will the FDA issue formal guidance on hemp-derived THC in beverages before September 30, 2026?
66%
YES consensus
4 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?
50%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)70%
4 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?
51%
YES consensus
4 calls
issues·Closes May 16
Will Shanken News Daily report at least one new flavored spirits product launch from a top-10 US spirits brand in the first two weeks of May 2026?
39%
YES consensus
3 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Bartender of the Year winner be a woman?
55%
YES consensus
3 calls
issues·Closes May 7
Will jason launch LiquorBets.com by 5/7?
86%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (2)86%
2 calls
issues·Closes May 15
Will Mr Black Coffee Liqueur announce a collaboration product or event for International Cold Brew Day 2026?
32%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)32%
1 calls
awards·Closes May 16
Will Punch publish at least 3 articles tagged 'classic cocktail' or 'cocktail history' in the first two weeks of May 2026?
81%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)81%
1 calls
hospitality·Closes May 18
Will Eater NY publish a Memorial Day weekend bar or rooftop guide between May 18 and May 25, 2026?
70%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)70%
1 calls
awards·Closes May 18
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Cocktail Bar list include at least one Brooklyn venue?
62%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)62%
1 calls
awards·Closes May 18
Will at least three NYC venues appear on the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Restaurant Bar list?
95%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)95%
1 calls
issues·Closes May 21
Will the May 2026 issue of Drinks International feature a non-US spirits brand as its primary cover story?
34%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)34%
1 calls
issues·Closes May 30
Will the NABCA April 2026 monthly data report show year-over-year volume growth for agave spirits (tequila + mezcal combined)?
79%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)79%
1 calls
m and a·Closes May 31
Will Campari Group close or announce any acquisition in May 2026?
80%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)80%
1 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins International Bar Industry Icon 2026?
Nominee 3 (TBA)
100% leading
Enthusiasts (1)
1 calls
m and a·Closes Oct 4
Will the EU adjust its tariff on American whiskey before October 1, 2026?
30%
YES consensus
Enthusiasts (1)30%
1 calls
issues·Closes May 11
Will The Spirits Business 'Spirit of the Week' feature a tequila or mezcal expression in the first full week of May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 12
Will all five of Diageo's, Pernod Ricard's, Bacardi's, Brown-Forman's, and Beam Suntory's primary US Instagram accounts post Mother's Day-themed content on May 11, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes May 18
Will Death and Co appear on the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Bar Team list?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes May 18
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best New US Cocktail Bar list include at least one Texas venue?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 22
Will the NABCA April 2026 monthly data report show mezcal growing faster (year-over-year volume) than tequila in control states?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 22
Will Eater NY publish a summer 2026 rooftop guide before Memorial Day weekend?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes May 29
Will Brown-Forman ($BF.B) close higher on May 29, 2026 than on May 1, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes May 29
Will Constellation Brands ($STZ) close higher on May 29, 2026 than it closed on May 1, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes May 29
Will MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) close higher on May 29, 2026 than on May 1, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes May 30
Will the 2026 James Beard Foundation finalists list include at least 5 bar or beverage program nominations across all categories?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 30
Will any NYS State Liquor Authority full board meeting in May 2026 publish an agenda item explicitly addressing on-premises licensing reform or processing-time reduction?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 30
Will the TTB COLA database log at least one agave-spirit-based ready-to-drink with a hemp-derived THC formulation as approved between May 1 and May 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 31
Will any TTB COLA approval in May 2026 include a hemp-derived THC beverage label from a licensed distillery?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will Eater NY publish at least one bar or cocktail lounge opening feature in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will the IWSR's next published US market briefing rank ready-to-drink as a top-3 growth category by volume?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will the Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 program announcement include a confirmed keynote from a global spirits brand CEO or brand ambassador at director level or above?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 publicly confirm at least one keynote speaker by May 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will WhistlePig announce a new limited-edition release in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes May 31
Will Pernod Ricard publicly comment on any portfolio sale rumor in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will Punch publish a long-form feature on a non-coastal US bar or program in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will Bar Convent Brooklyn publish an attendance or exhibitor projection for 2026 by May 31?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes May 31
Will the TTB approve more tequila-based RTDs than vodka-based RTDs in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will at least one new celebrity-fronted spirits brand publicly launch in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 31
Will the NYS State Liquor Authority post any May 2026 board meeting agenda item explicitly addressing cannabis or hemp-derived beverages?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 31
Will any US state legislature pass a three-tier reform bill in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes May 31
Will the US federal government announce any new spirits-specific tariff action in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will the IWSR's next published US briefing revise its RTD growth forecast downward?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will US off-premise bourbon dollar sales decline year-over-year in the latest Circana / NielsenIQ four-week period reported in May 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes May 31
Will Circana or NABCA report that Cinco de Mayo 2026 tequila volume sales were lower year-over-year?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes Jun 1
Will all five major spirits groups post Pride-themed content from their primary US accounts before June 1, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Will the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar award go to a venue outside New York City?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Which city's venue takes home the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar award?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 14
Will the 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar winner be a first-time winner of any JBF award?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jun 15
Which 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar finalist will win?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jul 25
Will Diageo announce a brand divestiture before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best New US Cocktail Bar in 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Best New US Cocktail Bar winner have opened in 2025 or 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Who wins Best US Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will a non-US venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best International Cocktail Bar?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Jul 29
Will a New York City venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Sep 14
Which tequila tops the 2026 Drinks International Brand Champions report?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes Oct 4
Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Oct 15
Will more than three NYC venues land on the 2026 World's 50 Best Bars list?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Nov 4
Will a US top-20 tequila brand be acquired by a different parent company before October 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Nov 14
Will any cocktail-focused NYC venue earn a Michelin star in the 2026 NY State guide?
No calls yet
0 calls
awards·Closes Dec 4
Which NYC bar will rank highest on World's 50 Best Bars 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Sazerac and Brown-Forman publicly announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will US imported spirits face new tariffs above 10% before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will a US craft distillery raise a Series A or later venture round of $10M or more before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
legislation·Closes Jan 4
Will any US state pass three-tier reform legislation expanding direct-to-consumer spirits shipping in 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Diageo publicly announce a sale, JV, or full divestiture of its China assets in calendar 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will the average price of #1 agave azul (Jalisco region) drop below 8 pesos/kilo before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Suntory Holdings acquire a non-Japanese spirits brand before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will Pernod Ricard divest at least one of its top-10 brands by global revenue before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 4
Will a top-3 global spirits major (Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman) acquire a no/low alcohol brand before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will Uber announce a Drizly relaunch or a successor on-demand alcohol delivery platform by December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
hospitality·Closes Jan 4
Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will at least one of the top-10 US spirits importers publicly announce a price increase of 10% or more attributable to tariffs in 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
issues·Closes Jan 4
Will the US federal tipped minimum wage increase before December 31, 2026?
No calls yet
0 calls
m and a·Closes Jan 14
Will US off-premise RTD dollar sales exceed bottled spirits in any monthly NielsenIQ report before year-end?
No calls yet
0 calls
The Liquor Bets Index aggregates every prediction on every open market. Forecasts update in real time. Segment breakdowns require at least one user from that segment to have predicted.
For the data behind specific calls, click any market. To start building a track record, browse all markets.