The Rules
Liquor Bets exists to sharpen the industry's read on itself. We run prediction markets on objective, public outcomes that the trade press, official dockets, and award bodies will resolve cleanly.
We do not bet against businesses or brands.
We do not run markets on whether a specific bar will fail, fold, or go under. We do not run markets on whether a named venue will open by a deadline. The hospitality industry is hard enough without a public scoreboard rooting for failure.
We do run markets on:
- Awards and recognition (TOTC Spirited Awards, James Beard, Eater lists, industry honors)
- Legislation and policy (TTB rules, state liquor laws, three-tier reform, tariffs, labor)
- Public M&A and category-level deals
- Published industry milestones (sales, market share, regulatory thresholds)
Every market resolves on a named primary source. Every resolution publishes a public receipt with at least two pieces of evidence and a confidence score. If we cannot prove the answer, we void the market and refund the score.
If you suggest a market, follow these rules. If you spot a market that violates them, contact us at jason@liquorbets.com and we will void it.
Forecast carefully. Cite cleanly. Support the industry.