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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
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Every active prediction market in one place. Search, filter by category or tag, and sort by what closes next, what the room is paying attention to, or what just landed.

Looking for the editorial overview? See Spirits Industry Predictions 2026 for context on each open forecast.

AllM&AAwardsHospitalityLegislationIssues30dClosed (81)
SortCloses soonMost predictedNewestSuggest a market
ClustersBourbon GlutTequila CrisisGLP-1 EffectTHC vs AlcoholCelebrity SpiritsTariffs & TradeTipping WarsAI in Hospitality
Tagsm_and_adatalegislationshort_termbourbonuncle-nearestrtddiageoglp150_bestnon_alcmenuseditorialthc
Legislationcloses in 14d

Will Maryland House Bill 736 (RTD cocktail alcoholic beverage tax) be signed into law before July 1, 2026?

legislationrtdmarylandtax
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
tequila
celebrity_brand
spirits
big_co
brown-forman
glut
M&A
closes in 14d

Will any major spirits group announce a $1B+ acquisition before July 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbig_coshort_term
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 14d

Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?

m-and-abrown-formansazeracbourbon
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 18d

Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?

bourbonglutkentuckyproduction
YES 78%
Crowd
78% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 38d

Will Diageo announce a brand divestiture before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageom_and_aportfolio
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 41d

Will Diageo or Brown-Forman publicly engage in new major M&A talks within 90 days of the Pernod/BF breakup?

m_and_abrown-formandiageopernod
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Who wins Best US Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?

YES 65%
Crowd
Other finalist (65%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Who wins Best New US Cocktail Bar in 2026?

YES 65%
Crowd
Other finalist (65%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will a New York City venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Best New US Cocktail Bar winner have opened in 2025 or 2026?

YES 92%
Crowd
92% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Who wins International Bar Industry Icon 2026?

YES 65%
Crowd
Other nominee (65%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Who wins Best New York Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?

YES 65%
Crowd
Other finalist (65%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Bartender of the Year winner be a woman?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will a non-US venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best International Cocktail Bar?

YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards World's Best Cocktail Menu go to a US venue?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 42d

Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Flashcloses in 43d
Awards

Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?

popglp1spirited_awards
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 43d

Will a 2026 Spirited Awards category be added or renamed to reflect non-traditional formats?

spirited_awardsformatcategories
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 45d

Will any US state enact a canned-cocktail tax, ABV, or licensing bill before August 1, 2026?

legislationrtdcanned-cocktailsstate-policy
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 60d

Will Diageo name a permanent CEO before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageoleadershipceo-search
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 76d

Will Diageo issue a downward revision to its FY2026 organic operating profit guidance before September 1, 2026?

earningsspiritsdiageobig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 76d

Will any US state enact a new alcohol cancer warning sign or label requirement before September 1, 2026?

legislationwarning-labelspublic-healthstate-policy
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 76d

Will Brown-Forman or Pernod Ricard publicly engage in new merger or major-acquisition talks before September 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbrown_formanpernod
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 77d

Will the federal court grant a gag order against Fawn Weaver in the Uncle Nearest receivership?

uncle-nearestlegalreceivership
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 89d

Which tequila tops the 2026 Drinks International Brand Champions report?

YES 65%
Crowd
Jose Cuervo (65%)
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 109d

Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?

NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 109d

Will the FDA issue formal guidance on hemp-derived THC in beverages before September 30, 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 109d

Will the EU adjust its tariff on American whiskey before October 1, 2026?

NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 109d

Will Constellation Brands announce another wine brand divestiture before September 30, 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 120d

Will more than three NYC venues land on the 2026 World's 50 Best Bars list?

50_bestnycawards
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 121d

Will at least three of the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 list at least one zero-proof signature on their flagship menu?

non_alc50_bestmocktailsmenus
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 121d

Will any World's 50 Best Bar publicly disclose that AI helped design a menu, drink, or guest experience in 2026?

ai50_bestmenusinnovation
NO 92%
Crowd
8% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 121d

Will any 2026 World's 50 Best Bar mention the espresso martini in its winning press write-up?

espresso_martini50_besteditorial
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 140d

Will a US top-20 tequila brand be acquired by a different parent company before October 31, 2026?

NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 150d

Will any cocktail-focused NYC venue earn a Michelin star in the 2026 NY State guide?

NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 170d

Which NYC bar will rank highest on World's 50 Best Bars 2026?

YES 65%
Crowd
Double Chicken Please (65%)
Predictors
1
Awardscloses in 170d

How many NYC bars make the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 top 50?

YES 65%
Crowd
3-4 (65%)
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 182d

Will the 2026 Kentucky bourbon barrel inventory exceed 17 million?

bourbondatakdistillersinventory
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?

bourbonearningsstocksmgp
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 198d

Will the FDA issue any formal enforcement action against a hemp-derived THC beverage company in 2026?

thcfdaregulationenforcement
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will US off-premise alcohol dollar sales decline year-over-year for three consecutive Circana four-week periods in 2026?

glp1off_premisecircanadata
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?

uncle-nearestleadershipwhiskey
NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will any Big 6 spirits CEO name GLP-1 medications as a material headwind on a 2026 earnings call?

glp1ozempicearningsbig6
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will mezcal outpace tequila in US off-premise YoY volume growth for any Circana period in 2026?

mezcaltequiladatacircana
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will Uncle Nearest be sold to a new owner before December 31, 2026?

uncle-nearestm_and_areceivershipwhiskey
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?

tequilapricingglutagave
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will more than 5 nationally-known cocktail bars announce expansion into a casual or all-day format in 2026?

formatexpansioncasualcocktail_bar
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 198d

Will Mexico retaliate with tariffs on US spirits before December 31, 2026?

tariffsmexicotraderetaliation
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will High Noon overtake White Claw in US off-premise dollar share for any 2026 Circana scan?

high_noonwhite_clawrtdcircana
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

If Uncle Nearest is sold in 2026, will the buyer be a major strategic spirits company?

uncle-nearestm_and_astrategic-buyer
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will a major US chain restaurant pull the espresso martini from its menu in 2026?

espresso_martinichainmenus
NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will a tequila brand outsell Tito's in any single 2026 Circana scan?

titostequilavodkadata
NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will at least two celebrity-fronted spirits brands be delisted by major retailers or publicly wound down in 2026?

celebrity_brandflopsretail
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will a top-10 American whiskey brand publicly cut its suggested retail price in 2026?

bourbonpricingretailglut
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?

espresso_martinitrenddatacocktails
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will a non-alcoholic spirits brand achieve a unicorn valuation by year-end 2026?

non_alcseedlipvaluationunicorn
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will any A-list celebrity launch a new spirits brand in 2026 with a major distributor at launch?

celebrity_brandlaunchesdistribution
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?

tippingservice_chargelaborrestaurants
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will any top hospitality publication publish a feature in 2026 declaring AI cocktails are or are not legitimate?

aicocktailseditorialdebate
YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will the word mocktail appear on the cover of any 2026 issue of Imbibe, Punch, or Drinks International?

mocktaileditorialcovernon_alc
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 198d

Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?

glp1editorialmenustrend
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 198d

Will any state pass legislation in 2026 explicitly banning THC beverages from being sold alongside alcohol?

thclegislationstateregulation
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 198d

Will any state pass a 2026 ballot measure or law eliminating the tipped minimum wage?

tippingwagelegislationlabor
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will Brown-Forman complete its US control-state distributor realignment across all 18 markets by year-end 2026?

brown-formandistributioncontrol-statesoperations
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 198d

Will the EU snap back its 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in 2026?

tariffseuamerican_whiskeytrade
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila change ownership or majority investor in 2026?

818kendall_jennerm_and_acelebrity_brand
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will US THC beverage retail dollar sales surpass craft beer for any single Circana four-week period in 2026?

thccannabisdatacraft_beer
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will Athletic Brewing be acquired or go public in 2026?

non_alcathleticm_and_aipo
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 198d

Will White Claw's parent Mark Anthony Brands acquire any spirits brand in 2026?

white_clawmark_anthonym_and_artd
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 198d

Will a top-20 spirits company publicly launch a hemp-derived THC beverage brand in 2026?

thccannabislaunchesbig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 201d

Will at least 5 US states pass new permanent cocktails-to-go legislation in 2026?

NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will a top-3 global spirits major (Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman) acquire a no/low alcohol brand before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 201d

Will at least one of the top-10 US spirits importers publicly announce a price increase of 10% or more attributable to tariffs in 2026?

YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will Pernod Ricard divest at least one of its top-10 brands by global revenue before December 31, 2026?

NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will a US craft distillery raise a Series A or later venture round of $10M or more before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 201d

Will any US state pass three-tier reform legislation expanding direct-to-consumer spirits shipping in 2026?

NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 201d

Will the TTB finalize a rule allowing modernized labeling disclosures (alcohol content, allergens, or nutrition facts) before December 31, 2026?

NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will the average price of #1 agave azul (Jalisco region) drop below 8 pesos/kilo before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 201d

Will the US federal tipped minimum wage increase before December 31, 2026?

NO 92%
Crowd
8% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will Suntory Holdings acquire a non-Japanese spirits brand before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will Sazerac and Brown-Forman publicly announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026?

NO 82%
Crowd
18% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 201d

Will US imported spirits face new tariffs above 10% before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 201d

Will Uber announce a Drizly relaunch or a successor on-demand alcohol delivery platform by December 31, 2026?

NO 85%
Crowd
15% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 201d

Will Diageo publicly announce a sale, JV, or full divestiture of its China assets in calendar 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 211d

Will US off-premise RTD dollar sales exceed bottled spirits in any monthly NielsenIQ report before year-end?

NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 229d

Will any Big 6 spirits company name AI as a strategic priority in their 2026 annual report?

aibig6annual_reportstrategy
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 229d

Will Mexico's tequila production decline year-over-year in 2026 per CRT data?

tequilacrtagaveproduction
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 257d

Will Conor McGregor's Proper Twelve still be in the top 5 Irish whiskey brands by US volume at year-end 2026?

proper_twelveirish_whiskeycelebrity_brandmcgregor
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 257d

Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?

tippingtoastsquaredata
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 288d

Will US whiskey exports to the EU decline by more than 20% YoY in 2026?

tariffseuexportsdata
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 379d

If Uncle Nearest is sold by mid-2027, will the announced sale price exceed $300M?

uncle-nearestm_and_avaluation
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1