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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/GLP-1 Effect
Cluster

The GLP-1 Effect on Spirits

TL;DR

Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption. Forecast how Big Six earnings calls, volume guidance, and retail data shift.

Every major spirits CEO now fields GLP-1 questions on earnings calls. The clinical data is real, the consumer behavior is messier, and the long-term volume impact is the most-debated number on Wall Street. These markets put a probability on the next twelve months of guidance and disclosure.

4 open markets
Flashcloses in 41d
Awards

Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?

popglp1spirited_awards
NO 92%
Crowd
8% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will any Big 6 spirits CEO name GLP-1 medications as a material headwind on a 2026 earnings call?

glp1ozempicearningsbig6
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will US off-premise alcohol dollar sales decline year-over-year for three consecutive Circana four-week periods in 2026?

glp1off_premisecircanadata
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 196d

Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?

glp1editorialmenustrend
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.