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Hospitality·Closes in 241d

Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?

TL;DR

The espresso martini has ranked as one of the most-searched and most-ordered cocktails globally for three consecutive years. Trend fatigue is real, but the drink's appeal spans demographics and occasions in a way that has historically sustained cocktail trends far longer than critics expect.

The espresso martini has dominated global cocktail trend reports since 2022. It appeared in every major annual ranking that year, 2023, and 2024. The industry debate is not whether it is overexposed, which it clearly is, but whether cultural overexposure translates to menu removal or volume decline. Historical cocktail cycles suggest that even trend-fatigued drinks maintain top-10 positions for 3-5 years post-peak.

The espresso martini's return to cultural prominence in 2021 and 2022 was driven by a confluence of factors: social media virality (TikTok espresso martini content generated hundreds of millions of views), the reopening of bars post-pandemic with a strong consumer desire for indulgent, Instagram-worthy drinks, and the drink's natural positioning at the intersection of coffee culture and cocktail culture.

By 2024, the drink appeared in virtually every major bar trend report as both a top-ordered item and a cultural lightning rod. Critics declared it over. Bartenders tired of making it. Yet scan data and POS reporting from Toast and Square continued to show it among the most consistently ordered cocktails at mid-tier and casual dining accounts.

The gap between bartender fatigue and consumer demand is the core tension. Top cocktail bars, competing for awards and critical recognition, have begun pulling espresso martinis from their menus or pointedly declining to feature them. Consumer-facing chains and casual bars, where drink decisions are driven by customer requests rather than bartender preference, continue to report strong velocity.

Trend reports from Toast cover the broadest set of US restaurants and bars, making its ranking the most volume-representative. BACARDI's Cocktail Trends Report focuses on global and premium bar trends. The question is whether the espresso martini maintains its position in the volume-weighted data even as the critical consensus declares it over.

Closes
December 31, 2026
Resolves
December 31, 2026
Source
Toast annual restaurant report, BACARDI Cocktail Trends Report, Drinks International World's Most Popular Cocktails, Punch year-end trend report
Judge
Jason Littrell
Resolution criteria

YES if the espresso martini appears in the top 10 most-ordered or most-popular cocktails in any year-end 2026 report from Toast, BACARDI, Drinks International, or Punch. NO if the espresso martini is absent from all top-10 lists in all specified publications.

Frequently asked

How long has the espresso martini been trending?

The espresso martini's modern revival began in 2021 after a TikTok-driven resurgence. It has appeared consistently in annual top-10 most-ordered cocktail lists since 2022, making 2026 its fourth or fifth consecutive year of chart presence.

What trend reports track most-ordered cocktails?

Toast publishes an annual restaurant and bar report covering ordering trends from millions of US accounts. BACARDI releases a global Cocktail Trends Report. Drinks International publishes the World's Most Popular Cocktails ranking. Punch covers premium bar trends.

Which bars have already pulled the espresso martini from their menus?

Several award-winning cocktail bars in New York, London, and Sydney have publicly removed the espresso martini from their menus as a deliberate statement against trend chasing. These decisions have generated media coverage but represent a small fraction of the total bar market.

What cocktails typically replace espresso martinis as they decline?

Historical pattern suggests that the next dominant cocktail trend often shares the espresso martini's appeal characteristics: visually distinctive, easy to explain, and suitable for sharing on social media. Candidates circulating in 2025 include the pornstar martini, the aperol negroni, and various mezcal-based drinks.

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