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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Tequila Crisis
Cluster

The Tequila Crisis

TL;DR

Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative. Bet on which celebrity tequilas exit, which brands change hands, and where agave settles.

After a five-year run, tequila category growth turned negative in 2025 as agave farmers sit on a glut and shelf prices fall. Celebrity-backed brands face the squeeze first, followed by mid-tier producers without a clear story. These markets forecast the names that consolidate, exit, or quietly delist.

4 open markets
Issuescloses in 196d

Will mezcal outpace tequila in US off-premise YoY volume growth for any Circana period in 2026?

mezcaltequiladatacircana
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will a tequila brand outsell Tito's in any single 2026 Circana scan?

titostequilavodkadata
NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?

tequilapricingglutagave
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 227d

Will Mexico's tequila production decline year-over-year in 2026 per CRT data?

tequilacrtagaveproduction
NO 62%
Crowd
38% YES
Predictors
2
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.