Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?

TL;DR

Brown-Forman and MGP Ingredients are the two most directly exposed public companies. BF.B has already warned on volume and price-mix trends heading into fiscal 2026, and a second consecutive miss would confirm that the category slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.

The American whiskey slowdown of 2024 and 2025 hit publicly traded spirits companies harder than private peers because analysts and investors could track the deterioration in real time. Brown-Forman issued multiple guidance cuts linked to volume softness in Jack Daniel's and its premium whiskey portfolio. MGP Ingredients, which supplies bulk whiskey to dozens of brands, saw its stock reprice as private label demand softened and contract renewals came in below historical rates.

Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF.B) and MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ: MGPI) represent the most liquid publicly traded vehicles for American whiskey exposure. Both companies entered 2026 with analyst consensus forecasts that already reflected some volume headwinds, but the question is whether actual results come in below even those reduced expectations for two straight quarters.

BF.B reports on an April fiscal year, meaning its Q2 and Q3 FY26 results will both fall within calendar 2026. The company has navigated the bourbon slowdown through price-mix management and international volume, but its core Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey franchise faces growing competition at the $25-$35 price point where premiumization fatigue is most visible.

MGPI operates on a calendar year and sells both branded spirits (Rossville Union, Eight & Sand) and bulk distillate. Its bulk segment is a direct proxy for industry production decisions: when brand owners pull back on outsourced whiskey, MGPI volume falls. The company issued a significant earnings warning in 2024 as brand owners reduced spot market purchases.

Two consecutive misses from either company would function as a formal confirmation that the whiskey cycle has turned, likely triggering analyst downgrades and increased media coverage of the broader glut narrative. The probability is elevated but not certain: both management teams have demonstrated the ability to manage expectations down ahead of reporting, and consensus already reflects some pessimism.

Frequently asked

Which companies are most exposed to the American whiskey slowdown?

Brown-Forman (BF.B) and MGP Ingredients (MGPI) are the two primary publicly traded pure-play or near-pure-play American whiskey companies. Beam Suntory, a larger player, is private and owned by Suntory Holdings of Japan.

What caused the American whiskey slowdown?

Multiple factors converged: post-pandemic on-premise normalization reduced bar and restaurant velocity, premium retail inventory built up as consumers traded down, and the secondary market for allocated bottles collapsed from 2022 peaks, dampening enthusiast-driven demand.

What does an earnings miss mean for the category narrative?

Back-to-back misses from a major public company tend to catalyze a broader narrative shift. Analysts downgrade, media coverage intensifies, and retail buyers become more cautious about reordering, which can accelerate the underlying depletion slowdown.

Has Brown-Forman ever missed earnings two quarters in a row?

BF.B posted guidance-below results in multiple consecutive periods during the 2024-2025 fiscal cycle, including downward revisions that effectively constituted misses against prior company guidance if not always against reduced consensus.