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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Tariffs & Trade
Cluster

Spirits Tariffs & Trade

TL;DR

EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila. Forecast which deals close, which expire, and what gets through.

The EU-US tariff truce is a calendar event with hard expiration dates. Mexico, Canada, and the UK have parallel disputes that touch every label on the back bar. These markets track the policy moves that matter to producers, distributors, and on-premise pricing.

4 open markets
Legislationcloses in 12d

Will Maryland House Bill 736 (RTD cocktail alcoholic beverage tax) be signed into law before July 1, 2026?

legislationrtdmarylandtax
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 196d

Will Mexico retaliate with tariffs on US spirits before December 31, 2026?

tariffsmexicotraderetaliation
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 196d

Will the EU snap back its 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in 2026?

tariffseuamerican_whiskeytrade
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 286d

Will US whiskey exports to the EU decline by more than 20% YoY in 2026?

tariffseuexportsdata
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.