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Agave azul prices in the Jalisco region are the focus of this market. The resolution centers on whether the average price for #1 grade agave drops below 8 pesos per kilogram by the end of 2026.
The Consejo Regulador del Tequila, or CRT, monitors and reports agricultural commodity prices for the spirits industry. This market relies on official CRT monthly data to track the cost of raw materials for tequila production in the Jalisco region.
Agave pricing is a primary driver of operational costs for tequila producers and influences the retail pricing of spirits globally. High volatility in the raw material market impacts inventory planning and capital allocation for both independent distillers and large spirits groups. Previous cycles saw agave prices reach record highs above 30 pesos per kilogram due to supply shortages. The current cycle shows a significant increase in planted acreage, suggesting a potential shift in the supply and demand balance as millions of plants reach their harvesting window. The calibration for forecasters involves evaluating if the current rate of planting outpaces the growth in global tequila consumption. The ability of the industry to absorb excess supply through expanded production or alternative agave products will determine if prices reach the 8 peso threshold. Market participants should monitor the monthly CRT price reports for consistent downward trends in Jalisco. Changes in export demand and any new regulatory measures introduced by the CRT to manage supply will also serve as critical indicators for the final resolution.
The CRT (Consejo Regulador del Tequila) published monthly average price for #1 agave azul in the Jalisco region falls below 8.00 MXN/kg in any single monthly report published before December 31, 2026.
This market resolves when the CRT publishes a report showing a price below 8 pesos or after the final 2026 data is released. Results are announced on the official CRT website.
The resolution data comes from the monthly price reports published by the Consejo Regulador del Tequila, the governing body for the industry.
Prices reached peaks above 30 pesos per kilogram in the early 2020s, while historical lows during periods of oversupply have previously touched single digits.
No, this market specifically tracks the average price for #1 grade agave azul within the Jalisco region as defined by the CRT monthly reports.
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