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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Celebrity Spirits
Cluster

The Celebrity Spirits Reckoning

TL;DR

The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating. Forecast which famous-face spirits get acquired, exit, or delist by major retailers.

After a decade of celebrity-backed launches and headline acquisitions, the category is sorting itself. Retailers are cutting weak SKUs, founders are taking quieter exits, and the buyers who paid 2021 multiples are not coming back. These markets put names and dates on the shakeout.

4 open markets
Issuescloses in 196d

Will at least two celebrity-fronted spirits brands be delisted by major retailers or publicly wound down in 2026?

celebrity_brandflopsretail
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will any A-list celebrity launch a new spirits brand in 2026 with a major distributor at launch?

celebrity_brandlaunchesdistribution
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 196d

Will Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila change ownership or majority investor in 2026?

818kendall_jennerm_and_acelebrity_brand
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 255d

Will Conor McGregor's Proper Twelve still be in the top 5 Irish whiskey brands by US volume at year-end 2026?

proper_twelveirish_whiskeycelebrity_brandmcgregor
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.