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A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Bourbon Glut
Cluster

The Bourbon Glut

TL;DR

American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile. Forecast which distillery pauses next, which brand winds down, and where the cycle bottoms.

Kentucky bourbon inventory hit an all-time high in 2024 while consumer demand softened, leaving producers with more aged stock than they can move. Independent bottlers, craft distilleries, and big-six brands are all working through the same overhang. These markets track the operational decisions that follow.

9 open markets
M&Acloses in 12d

Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?

m-and-abrown-formansazeracbourbon
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.
Issues
closes in 16d

Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?

bourbonglutkentuckyproduction
YES 77%
Crowd
77% YES
Predictors
2
Issuescloses in 180d

Will the 2026 Kentucky bourbon barrel inventory exceed 17 million?

bourbondatakdistillersinventory
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 196d

Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?

uncle-nearestleadershipwhiskey
NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 196d

Will Uncle Nearest be sold to a new owner before December 31, 2026?

uncle-nearestm_and_areceivershipwhiskey
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?

tequilapricingglutagave
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will a top-10 American whiskey brand publicly cut its suggested retail price in 2026?

bourbonpricingretailglut
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?

bourbonearningsstocksmgp
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 196d

Will the EU snap back its 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in 2026?

tariffseuamerican_whiskeytrade
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1