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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Tipping Wars
Cluster

The Tipping Wars

TL;DR

Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality. Forecast which big-name groups change their model next.

Every quarter another high-profile restaurant group announces a service-charge overhaul, ditches tipping, or reverses course. State legislators in California, New York, and DC are also moving. These markets track the operator decisions that set the tone for the rest of the room.

3 open markets
Hospitalitycloses in 196d

Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?

tippingservice_chargelaborrestaurants
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 196d

Will any state pass a 2026 ballot measure or law eliminating the tipped minimum wage?

tippingwagelegislationlabor
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 255d

Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?

tippingtoastsquaredata
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.