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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/THC vs Alcohol
Cluster

THC vs Alcohol

TL;DR

Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment. Forecast retail expansion, regulatory action, and which alcohol brand launches first.

THC seltzers are showing up in liquor stores, restaurants, and gas stations across two dozen states. Federal legality sits on the 2018 Farm Bill loophole, state-by-state action is unpredictable, and traditional alcohol brands are quietly building category entries. These markets track that race.

8 open markets
Awardscloses in 119d

Will at least three of the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 list at least one zero-proof signature on their flagship menu?

non_alc50_bestmocktailsmenus
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Other clusters
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.
Legislation
closes in 196d

Will the FDA issue any formal enforcement action against a hemp-derived THC beverage company in 2026?

thcfdaregulationenforcement
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 196d

Will a non-alcoholic spirits brand achieve a unicorn valuation by year-end 2026?

non_alcseedlipvaluationunicorn
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will the word mocktail appear on the cover of any 2026 issue of Imbibe, Punch, or Drinks International?

mocktaileditorialcovernon_alc
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Legislationcloses in 196d

Will any state pass legislation in 2026 explicitly banning THC beverages from being sold alongside alcohol?

thclegislationstateregulation
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will US THC beverage retail dollar sales surpass craft beer for any single Circana four-week period in 2026?

thccannabisdatacraft_beer
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 196d

Will Athletic Brewing be acquired or go public in 2026?

non_alcathleticm_and_aipo
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 196d

Will a top-20 spirits company publicly launch a hemp-derived THC beverage brand in 2026?

thccannabislaunchesbig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1