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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
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Every active prediction market in one place. Search, filter by category or tag, and sort by what closes next, what the room is paying attention to, or what just landed.

Looking for the editorial overview? See Spirits Industry Predictions 2026 for context on each open forecast.

AllM&AAwardsHospitalityLegislationIssues30dClosed (16)
SortCloses soonMost predictedNewestSuggest a market
ClustersBourbon GlutTequila CrisisGLP-1 EffectTHC vs AlcoholCelebrity SpiritsTariffs & TradeTipping WarsAI in Hospitality
Tagstippingcocktailseditorialmenustrendespresso_martinidataservice_chargelaborrestaurantsaidebateglp1format
Hospitalitycloses in 109d

Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?

NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?

expansion
casual
cocktail_bar
chain
uncle-nearest
leadership
tippingservice_chargelaborrestaurants
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will any top hospitality publication publish a feature in 2026 declaring AI cocktails are or are not legitimate?

aicocktailseditorialdebate
YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?

glp1editorialmenustrend
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will more than 5 nationally-known cocktail bars announce expansion into a casual or all-day format in 2026?

formatexpansioncasualcocktail_bar
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?

espresso_martinitrenddatacocktails
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will a major US chain restaurant pull the espresso martini from its menu in 2026?

espresso_martinichainmenus
NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 197d

Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?

uncle-nearestleadershipwhiskey
NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 201d

Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 256d

Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?

tippingtoastsquaredata
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1