Why are agave prices falling in 2026?
Agave prices are falling in 2026 because Mexican growers overplanted during the 2018-2022 tequila boom, and harvest volumes are now hitting the market just as US tequila demand cooled. The peso-denominated input cost has dropped roughly 60-70 percent from peak.
Agave prices are falling in 2026 because Mexican growers overplanted during the 2018-2022 tequila boom, and the seven-year maturation cycle means those plantings are now hitting the market just as US tequila demand cooled. Wholesale agave prices peaked above 30 pesos per kilo in 2022 and have since fallen to single digits. The price collapse helps margin for established premium tequila brands but creates an existential problem for the celebrity tequila category, which built brand stories around scarcity and price. Liquor Bets runs markets on tequila category volume, named celebrity brand divestments, and whether agave hits stated price floors.