What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a forecasting tool where people commit to a probability on a future event. The aggregated probabilities tend to be more accurate than individual experts because they reward calibration over confidence.
A prediction market is a forecasting tool where people commit to a probability on a future event, then get scored when the event resolves. The aggregated probabilities tend to be more accurate than individual experts because the system rewards calibration over confidence. On Liquor Bets, you assign a probability between 1 and 99 percent to questions about the spirits and bar industry. When the question resolves from a public source, your forecast is scored using a Brier score. Lower scores are better. The scoreboard ranks the most accurate forecasters in the industry. Liquor Bets is free and uses points only. No real money changes hands.