How does Brier scoring work on Liquor Bets?
Brier score is a calibration measure. We compute (forecast minus outcome) squared. If you predicted 80% and the answer was yes, your score is 0.04. If the answer was no, your score is 0.64. Lower is better.
Brier scoring measures how well-calibrated your probability forecasts are. We compute (forecast minus outcome) squared. If you predicted 80 percent on a yes-no question and the answer turns out to be yes, your score is 0.04. If the answer was no, your score is 0.64. Lower is better. For multiple-choice markets, picking the correct option gives you (1 minus p) squared and picking the wrong one gives you p squared. Your monthly leaderboard rank is your mean Brier score across resolved markets. You need a minimum of five resolved predictions to qualify for the monthly board. The lowest mean Brier wins the month.