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A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/M&A
Category

Spirits M&A prediction markets

TL;DR

Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when. Calendar-bound markets on the deals the industry is already arguing about.

Mergers and acquisitions are the cleanest signal in beverage alcohol. Multiples, strategic fit, family-ownership timelines, regulatory windows. These markets translate that messy intelligence into discrete, scoreable predictions.

26 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
M&Acloses in 16d

Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?

m-and-abrown-formansazeracbourbon
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 16d

Will any major spirits group announce a $1B+ acquisition before July 1, 2026?

Recently resolved
  • Will Pernod Ricard publicly comment on any portfolio sale rumor in May 2026?resolved
  • Will Campari Group close or announce any acquisition in May 2026?resolved
  • Will the Reyes Beverage Group acquisition of RNDC assets close before June 1, 2026?resolved
  • Will Constellation Brands ($STZ) close higher on May 29, 2026 than it closed on May 1, 2026?voided
  • Will Brown-Forman ($BF.B) close higher on May 29, 2026 than on May 1, 2026?resolved
  • Will MGP Ingredients ($MGPI) close higher on May 29, 2026 than on May 1, 2026?resolved
  • Will Pernod Ricard announce a major brand divestiture or exit in an 8-K filing by Friday?resolved
  • Will Becle report net sales growth above 8% in Q1 2026 when it files results Friday?resolved
  • Will Brown-Forman report net revenue growth above 5% in Q3 FY2026 when it reports Friday?
Other categories
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.
m_and_aspiritsbig_coshort_term
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 40d

Will Diageo announce a brand divestiture before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageom_and_aportfolio
YES 61%Moving YES
Crowd
61% YES↑7
Predictors
3+1/24h
M&Acloses in 42d

Will Diageo or Brown-Forman publicly engage in new major M&A talks within 90 days of the Pernod/BF breakup?

m_and_abrown-formandiageopernod
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 61d

Will Diageo name a permanent CEO before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageoleadershipceo-search
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 78d

Will Brown-Forman or Pernod Ricard publicly engage in new merger or major-acquisition talks before September 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbrown_formanpernod
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 78d

Will Diageo issue a downward revision to its FY2026 organic operating profit guidance before September 1, 2026?

earningsspiritsdiageobig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 111d

Will the EU adjust its tariff on American whiskey before October 1, 2026?

NO 59%
Crowd
42% YES↓2
Predictors
4+1/24h
M&Acloses in 111d

Will Constellation Brands announce another wine brand divestiture before September 30, 2026?

YES 58%
Crowd
58% YES↑3
Predictors
6+1/24h
M&Acloses in 142d

Will a US top-20 tequila brand be acquired by a different parent company before October 31, 2026?

NO 69%
Crowd
32% YES↑4
Predictors
2+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will Athletic Brewing be acquired or go public in 2026?

non_alcathleticm_and_aipo
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila change ownership or majority investor in 2026?

818kendall_jennerm_and_acelebrity_brand
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will Brown-Forman complete its US control-state distributor realignment across all 18 markets by year-end 2026?

brown-formandistributioncontrol-statesoperations
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will Uncle Nearest be sold to a new owner before December 31, 2026?

uncle-nearestm_and_areceivershipwhiskey
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

If Uncle Nearest is sold in 2026, will the buyer be a major strategic spirits company?

uncle-nearestm_and_astrategic-buyer
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will a non-alcoholic spirits brand achieve a unicorn valuation by year-end 2026?

non_alcseedlipvaluationunicorn
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 199d

Will White Claw's parent Mark Anthony Brands acquire any spirits brand in 2026?

white_clawmark_anthonym_and_artd
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will a US craft distillery raise a Series A or later venture round of $10M or more before December 31, 2026?

YES 68%Moving NO
Crowd
68% YES↓9
Predictors
4+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will the average price of #1 agave azul (Jalisco region) drop below 8 pesos/kilo before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will Diageo publicly announce a sale, JV, or full divestiture of its China assets in calendar 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will Suntory Holdings acquire a non-Japanese spirits brand before December 31, 2026?

NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES↓2
Predictors
3+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will a top-3 global spirits major (Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman) acquire a no/low alcohol brand before December 31, 2026?

YES 65%Moving NO
Crowd
65% YES↓9
Predictors
2+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will Pernod Ricard divest at least one of its top-10 brands by global revenue before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%Moving NO
Crowd
55% YES↓10
Predictors
2+1/24h
M&Acloses in 203d

Will Sazerac and Brown-Forman publicly announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026?

NO 82%
Crowd
18% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
M&Acloses in 213d

Will US off-premise RTD dollar sales exceed bottled spirits in any monthly NielsenIQ report before year-end?

NO 52%Moving NO
Crowd
48% YES↓19
Predictors
3+1/24h
M&Acloses in 380d

If Uncle Nearest is sold by mid-2027, will the announced sale price exceed $300M?

uncle-nearestm_and_avaluation
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
voided
  • Will Constellation Brands report beer segment net sales growth above 6% in Q3 FY2026 when it files Thursday?voided
  • Will Brown-Forman's Q3 FY2026 earnings beat consensus EPS when reported Thursday?voided
  • Will Diageo report organic net sales growth above 3% in Q3 FY2026 when it files results Thursday?voided