Liquor Bets
MarketsTopicsSuggestWireIndexResolvedLeaderboard
Suggest a marketSign inStart forecasting
Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

Site
  • Markets
  • Topics
  • Resolved markets
  • Leaderboard
  • Featured Forecasters
  • Suggest a market
  • Our rules
  • Start forecasting
Resources
  • How it works
  • FAQ
  • The Index
  • The Spirits Wire
  • The Pulse
  • By the numbers
  • 2026 predictions
For brands & press
  • Sponsor (waitlist)
  • Media kit (coming soon)
  • Press contact
Network
  • BuildoutFeed
  • Punch List NYC
  • The Cocktail Bar League
  • Jason Littrell
  • KMS Ops
  • BarTeams
  • jason@jlittrell.com

This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/M&A
Category

Spirits M&A prediction markets

TL;DR

Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when. Calendar-bound markets on the deals the industry is already arguing about.

Mergers and acquisitions are the cleanest signal in beverage alcohol. Multiples, strategic fit, family-ownership timelines, regulatory windows. These markets translate that messy intelligence into discrete, scoreable predictions.

23 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
Flashcloses in 1d 7h
M&A

Will Southern Glazer’s announce a new major supplier alignment in any U.S. state within 72 hours?

sgwsdistribution
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
M&Acloses in 16d

Will Diageo name a permanent CEO before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageoleadership
Recently resolved
  • Will a top-5 U.S. spirits supplier file an S-1 or F-1 for a spin-off or IPO within the next 72 hours?resolved
  • Will a top-10 spirits supplier file an 8-K announcing a brand acquisition within 72 hours?resolved
  • Will a top-10 global spirits company file an 8-K this week naming a new U.S. distributor realignment?resolved
  • Will Southern Glazer's announce a new supplier alignment or portfolio deal in the next 72 hours?voided
  • Will Southern Glazer’s announce a new supplier book win within the next 72 hours?voided
  • Will Johnson Brothers announce a new multi-state partnership with a major spirits supplier within 72 hours?voided
  • Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?resolved
  • Will any major spirits group announce a $1B+ acquisition before July 1, 2026?
Other categories
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.
ceo-search
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 33d

Will Brown-Forman or Pernod Ricard publicly engage in new merger or major-acquisition talks before September 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbrown_formanpernod_ricard
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 33d

Will Diageo issue a downward revision to its FY2026 organic operating profit guidance before September 1, 2026?

earningsspiritsdiageobig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 66d

Will the EU adjust its tariff on American whiskey before October 1, 2026?

NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 66d

Will Constellation Brands announce another wine brand divestiture before September 30, 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 97d

Will a US top-20 tequila brand be acquired by a different parent company before October 31, 2026?

NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

If Uncle Nearest is sold in 2026, will the buyer be a major strategic spirits company?

uncle_nearestm_and_astrategic-buyer
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will Uncle Nearest be sold to a new owner before December 31, 2026?

uncle_nearestm_and_areceivershipwhiskey
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will Athletic Brewing be acquired or go public in 2026?

non_alcathleticm_and_aipo
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will White Claw's parent Mark Anthony Brands acquire any spirits brand in 2026?

white_clawmark_anthonym_and_artd
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila change ownership or majority investor in 2026?

818kendall_jennerm_and_acelebrity_brand
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will Brown-Forman complete its US control-state distributor realignment across all 18 markets by year-end 2026?

brown_formandistributioncontrol-statesoperations
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 154d

Will a non-alcoholic spirits brand achieve a unicorn valuation by year-end 2026?

non_alcseedlipvaluationunicorn
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will a top-3 global spirits major (Diageo, Pernod, Brown-Forman) acquire a no/low alcohol brand before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will the average price of #1 agave azul (Jalisco region) drop below 8 pesos/kilo before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will Diageo publicly announce a sale, JV, or full divestiture of its China assets in calendar 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will Suntory Holdings acquire a non-Japanese spirits brand before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will Pernod Ricard divest at least one of its top-10 brands by global revenue before December 31, 2026?

NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will Sazerac and Brown-Forman publicly announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026?

NO 82%
Crowd
18% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 158d

Will a US craft distillery raise a Series A or later venture round of $10M or more before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 168d

Will US off-premise RTD dollar sales exceed bottled spirits in any monthly NielsenIQ report before year-end?

NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 335d

If Uncle Nearest is sold by mid-2027, will the announced sale price exceed $300M?

uncle_nearestm_and_avaluation
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
voided
  • Will WSWA Access LIVE name a new top-10 distributor partnership by conference end?resolved
  • Will Pernod Ricard publicly comment on any portfolio sale rumor in May 2026?resolved
  • Will Campari Group close or announce any acquisition in May 2026?resolved
  • Will the Reyes Beverage Group acquisition of RNDC assets close before June 1, 2026?resolved