Liquor Bets
MarketsTopicsSuggestWireIndexResolvedLeaderboard
Suggest a marketSign inStart forecasting
Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

Site
  • Markets
  • Topics
  • Resolved markets
  • Leaderboard
  • Featured Forecasters
  • Suggest a market
  • Our rules
  • Start forecasting
Resources
  • How it works
  • FAQ
  • The Index
  • The Spirits Wire
  • The Pulse
  • By the numbers
  • 2026 predictions
For brands & press
  • Sponsor (waitlist)
  • Media kit (coming soon)
  • Press contact
Network
  • BuildoutFeed
  • Punch List NYC
  • The Cocktail Bar League
  • Jason Littrell
  • KMS Ops
  • BarTeams
  • jason@jlittrell.com

This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/Issues
Category

Industry issues prediction markets

TL;DR

Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now. The questions that don't fit anywhere else but everyone's talking about.

Some questions don't map cleanly to M&A or awards or legislation. These are the trend calls, exec watch, and structural debates — non-alc growth curves, GLP-1 impact, celebrity-brand staying power, RTD share.

23 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
Issuescloses in 33d

Will the federal court grant a gag order against Fawn Weaver in the Uncle Nearest receivership?

uncle_nearestlegalreceivership
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Recently resolved
  • Will any SGWS-related SEC filing in the next 72 hours disclose new legal or regulatory actions?voided
  • Will Southern Glazer's announce another distributor realignment this week?resolved
  • Will Southern Glazer's formally debut its new corporate name within 72 hours?resolved
  • Will SGWS announce another supplier book gain by Friday?resolved
  • Will Reyes Beverage Group file a new WARN Act notice in any state within the next 72 hours?resolved
  • Will any top-10 US spirits distributor file an 8-K announcing a new market exit by Friday?resolved
  • Will Southern Glazer's formally announce its corporate name change within 72 hours?voided
  • Will any major US distributor be named as a sponsoring partner in the 2026 Proof Awards RTD results release?
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
closes in 138d

Will the 2026 Kentucky bourbon barrel inventory exceed 17 million?

bourbondatakdistillersinventory
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will a tequila brand outsell Tito's in any single 2026 Circana scan?

titostequilavodkadata
NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will a top-20 spirits company publicly launch a hemp-derived THC beverage brand in 2026?

thccannabislaunchesbig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will US THC beverage retail dollar sales surpass craft beer for any single Circana four-week period in 2026?

thccannabisdatacraft_beer
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will any A-list celebrity launch a new spirits brand in 2026 with a major distributor at launch?

celebrity_brandlaunchesdistribution
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?

bourbonearningsstocksmgp
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will at least two celebrity-fronted spirits brands be delisted by major retailers or publicly wound down in 2026?

celebrity_brandflopsretail
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?

tequilapricingglutagave
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will mezcal outpace tequila in US off-premise YoY volume growth for any Circana period in 2026?

mezcaltequiladatacircana
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will US off-premise alcohol dollar sales decline year-over-year for three consecutive Circana four-week periods in 2026?

glp1off_premisecircanadata
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will any Big 6 spirits CEO name GLP-1 medications as a material headwind on a 2026 earnings call?

glp1ozempicearningsbig6
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will High Noon overtake White Claw in US off-premise dollar share for any 2026 Circana scan?

high_noonwhite_clawrtdcircana
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will a top-10 American whiskey brand publicly cut its suggested retail price in 2026?

bourbonpricingretailglut
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 154d

Will the word mocktail appear on the cover of any 2026 issue of Imbibe, Punch, or Drinks International?

mocktaileditorialcovernon_alc
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 158d

Will US imported spirits face new tariffs above 10% before December 31, 2026?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 158d

Will at least one of the top-10 US spirits importers publicly announce a price increase of 10% or more attributable to tariffs in 2026?

YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 158d

Will the US federal tipped minimum wage increase before December 31, 2026?

NO 92%
Crowd
8% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 158d

Will Uber announce a Drizly relaunch or a successor on-demand alcohol delivery platform by December 31, 2026?

NO 85%
Crowd
15% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 185d

Will Mexico's tequila production decline year-over-year in 2026 per CRT data?

tequilacrtagaveproduction
NO 62%
Crowd
38% YES
Predictors
2
Issuescloses in 185d

Will any Big 6 spirits company name AI as a strategic priority in their 2026 annual report?

aibig6annual_reportstrategy
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 213d

Will Conor McGregor's Proper Twelve still be in the top 5 Irish whiskey brands by US volume at year-end 2026?

proper_twelveirish_whiskeycelebrity_brandmcgregor
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 244d

Will US whiskey exports to the EU decline by more than 20% YoY in 2026?

tariffseuexportsdata
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1
voided
  • Will Pernod Ricard flag another year of softer U.S. spirits demand in its next update?voided
  • Will any major US distributor announce a new state exit via public filing by July 5?voided
  • Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?voided
  • Will Diageo beat consensus on FY26 operating profit when it reports this week?voided