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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/Issues
Category

Industry issues prediction markets

TL;DR

Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now. The questions that don't fit anywhere else but everyone's talking about.

Some questions don't map cleanly to M&A or awards or legislation. These are the trend calls, exec watch, and structural debates — non-alc growth curves, GLP-1 impact, celebrity-brand staying power, RTD share.

24 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
Issuescloses in 19d

Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?

bourbonglutkentuckyproduction
YES 78%
Crowd
78% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 78d

Will the federal court grant a gag order against Fawn Weaver in the Uncle Nearest receivership?

Recently resolved
  • Will US off-premise bourbon dollar sales decline year-over-year in the latest Circana / NielsenIQ four-week period reported in May 2026?voided
  • Will the IWSR's next published US briefing revise its RTD growth forecast downward?voided
  • Will at least one new celebrity-fronted spirits brand publicly launch in May 2026?voided
  • Will Circana or NABCA report that Cinco de Mayo 2026 tequila volume sales were lower year-over-year?voided
  • Will WhistlePig announce a new limited-edition release in May 2026?voided
  • Will all five major spirits groups post Pride-themed content from their primary US accounts before June 1, 2026?voided
  • Will the IWSR's next published US market briefing rank ready-to-drink as a top-3 growth category by volume?voided
  • Will the NABCA April 2026 monthly data report show year-over-year volume growth for agave spirits (tequila + mezcal combined)?voided
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
uncle-nearestlegalreceivership
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 183d

Will the 2026 Kentucky bourbon barrel inventory exceed 17 million?

bourbondatakdistillersinventory
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will a top-20 spirits company publicly launch a hemp-derived THC beverage brand in 2026?

thccannabislaunchesbig_co
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will US THC beverage retail dollar sales surpass craft beer for any single Circana four-week period in 2026?

thccannabisdatacraft_beer
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will any A-list celebrity launch a new spirits brand in 2026 with a major distributor at launch?

celebrity_brandlaunchesdistribution
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will at least one publicly traded American whiskey company miss earnings two quarters in a row in 2026?

bourbonearningsstocksmgp
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will at least two celebrity-fronted spirits brands be delisted by major retailers or publicly wound down in 2026?

celebrity_brandflopsretail
YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will any top-20 tequila brand announce a US price cut in 2026?

tequilapricingglutagave
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will mezcal outpace tequila in US off-premise YoY volume growth for any Circana period in 2026?

mezcaltequiladatacircana
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will US off-premise alcohol dollar sales decline year-over-year for three consecutive Circana four-week periods in 2026?

glp1off_premisecircanadata
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will any Big 6 spirits CEO name GLP-1 medications as a material headwind on a 2026 earnings call?

glp1ozempicearningsbig6
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will High Noon overtake White Claw in US off-premise dollar share for any 2026 Circana scan?

high_noonwhite_clawrtdcircana
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will a tequila brand outsell Tito's in any single 2026 Circana scan?

titostequilavodkadata
NO 90%
Crowd
10% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will a top-10 American whiskey brand publicly cut its suggested retail price in 2026?

bourbonpricingretailglut
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 199d

Will the word mocktail appear on the cover of any 2026 issue of Imbibe, Punch, or Drinks International?

mocktaileditorialcovernon_alc
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 203d

Will the US federal tipped minimum wage increase before December 31, 2026?

NO 59%Moving NO
Crowd
41% YES↓11
Predictors
4+1/24h
Issuescloses in 203d

Will at least one of the top-10 US spirits importers publicly announce a price increase of 10% or more attributable to tariffs in 2026?

YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 203d

Will Uber announce a Drizly relaunch or a successor on-demand alcohol delivery platform by December 31, 2026?

NO 61%Moving NO
Crowd
39% YES↓13
Predictors
3+1/24h
Issuescloses in 203d

Will US imported spirits face new tariffs above 10% before December 31, 2026?

NO 59%Moving YES
Crowd
42% YES↑14
Predictors
2+1/24h
Issuescloses in 230d

Will Mexico's tequila production decline year-over-year in 2026 per CRT data?

tequilacrtagaveproduction
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 230d

Will any Big 6 spirits company name AI as a strategic priority in their 2026 annual report?

aibig6annual_reportstrategy
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 258d

Will Conor McGregor's Proper Twelve still be in the top 5 Irish whiskey brands by US volume at year-end 2026?

proper_twelveirish_whiskeycelebrity_brandmcgregor
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Issuescloses in 289d

Will US whiskey exports to the EU decline by more than 20% YoY in 2026?

tariffseuexportsdata
YES 60%
Crowd
60% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Will the NABCA April 2026 monthly data report show mezcal growing faster (year-over-year volume) than tequila in control states?
voided
  • Will the May 2026 issue of Drinks International feature a non-US spirits brand as its primary cover story?voided
  • Will Mr Black Coffee Liqueur announce a collaboration product or event for International Cold Brew Day 2026?resolved
  • Will Shanken News Daily report at least one new flavored spirits product launch from a top-10 US spirits brand in the first two weeks of May 2026?resolved