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A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/Hospitality
Category

Hospitality prediction markets

TL;DR

Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.

Hospitality moves on signal, not press. These markets capture the calls operators make in private — who's opening, who's expanding, who's pivoting — and turn them into something the room can score.

18 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
Hospitalitycloses in 81d

Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?

NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will any top hospitality publication publish a feature in 2026 declaring AI cocktails are or are not legitimate?

Recently resolved
  • Will the Beverage Alcohol Retailers Conference publish a new 2026 agenda update this week?voided
  • Will Vinexpo Americas publicly confirm a major new US spirits sponsor this week?resolved
  • Will any major spirits company launch a new product by Sunday?voided
  • Will Asbury Park Summer Fest publish an official spirits brand list naming at least 15 distinct brands before gates open?resolved
  • Will BCB Brooklyn 2026 include at least three education sessions focused on no-low, wellness, THC, or functional beverages?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn list at least 250 exhibitors before doors open on June 9, 2026?voided
  • Will the TTB approve more tequila-based RTDs than vodka-based RTDs in May 2026?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn publish an attendance or exhibitor projection for 2026 by May 31?voided
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.
aicocktailseditorialdebate
YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?

glp1editorialmenustrend
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will more than 5 nationally-known cocktail bars announce expansion into a casual or all-day format in 2026?

formatexpansioncasualcocktail_bar
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will a major US chain restaurant pull the espresso martini from its menu in 2026?

espresso_martinichainmenus
NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?

uncle_nearestleadershipwhiskey
NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?

espresso_martinitrenddatacocktails
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?

tippingservice_chargelaborrestaurants
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will Southern Glazer's Beverage Co. announce another workforce reduction of any size before December 31, 2026?

consolidationdistributiondistributor_consolidationdistributors
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Will Southern Glazer's complete the rebrand to Southern Glazer's Beverage Co. across all state DBA registrations by December 31, 2026?

distributor_consolidationdistributorsoperationsrebrand
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Hospitalitycloses in 169d

Which Southern Glazer's Beverage Co. division will see the next public restructuring announcement in 2026?

consolidationdistributor_consolidationdistributorsoperations
Crowd
no predictions yet
Predictors
0
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?

YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
70% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?

NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 173d

Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?

NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1
Hospitalitycloses in 228d

Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?

tippingtoastsquaredata
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
  • Will Punch publish a long-form feature on a non-coastal US bar or program in May 2026?voided
  • Will the Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 program announcement include a confirmed keynote from a global spirits brand CEO or brand ambassador at director level or above?voided
  • Will Eater NY publish at least one bar or cocktail lounge opening feature in May 2026?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 publicly confirm at least one keynote speaker by May 31, 2026?voided