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A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/Hospitality
Category

Hospitality prediction markets

TL;DR

Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.

Hospitality moves on signal, not press. These markets capture the calls operators make in private — who's opening, who's expanding, who's pivoting — and turn them into something the room can score.

15 open markets · 12 recent resolutions
Hospitalitycloses in 111d

Will the NYS SLA new on-premises application backlog (median age) exceed 90 days at any point in Q3 2026?

NO 61%Moving NO
Crowd
39% YES↓7
Predictors
4+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d
Recently resolved
  • Will BCB Brooklyn 2026 include at least three education sessions focused on no-low, wellness, THC, or functional beverages?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn list at least 250 exhibitors before doors open on June 9, 2026?voided
  • Will the TTB approve more tequila-based RTDs than vodka-based RTDs in May 2026?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn publish an attendance or exhibitor projection for 2026 by May 31?voided
  • Will Punch publish a long-form feature on a non-coastal US bar or program in May 2026?voided
  • Will the Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 program announcement include a confirmed keynote from a global spirits brand CEO or brand ambassador at director level or above?voided
  • Will Eater NY publish at least one bar or cocktail lounge opening feature in May 2026?voided
  • Will Bar Convent Brooklyn 2026 publicly confirm at least one keynote speaker by May 31, 2026?voided
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.

Will a major US chain restaurant pull the espresso martini from its menu in 2026?

espresso_martinichainmenus
NO 75%
Crowd
25% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will Fawn Weaver still be CEO of Uncle Nearest at year-end 2026?

uncle-nearestleadershipwhiskey
NO 60%
Crowd
40% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will more than 5 nationally-known cocktail bars announce expansion into a casual or all-day format in 2026?

formatexpansioncasualcocktail_bar
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will the espresso martini still appear on the top 10 most-ordered cocktails list in any major US bar trend report at year-end 2026?

espresso_martinitrenddatacocktails
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will a top-50 US restaurant group publicly convert to service-included pricing in 2026?

tippingservice_chargelaborrestaurants
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will any top hospitality publication publish a feature in 2026 declaring AI cocktails are or are not legitimate?

aicocktailseditorialdebate
YES 80%
Crowd
80% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 199d

Will a major hospitality publication run a feature on Ozempic menus in 2026?

glp1editorialmenustrend
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will a US hospitality outlet publish a feature-length article specifically about a restaurant where the menu was AI-designed in 2026?

YES 54%
Crowd
54% YES↑5
Predictors
7+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will a US hospitality SaaS company (POS, reservation, payroll, scheduling) with $20M+ ARR be acquired before December 31, 2026?

NO 55%Moving YES
Crowd
45% YES↑6
Predictors
8+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will New York State pass permanent cocktails-to-go legislation (signed by the governor) before December 31, 2026?

YES 51%Moving NO
Crowd
51% YES↓7
Predictors
5+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will Eater NY's 2026 'Essential Bars' list include at least 3 venues that opened in 2025 or 2026?

NO 51%Moving YES
Crowd
50% YES↑21
Predictors
2+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will any new independently-owned single-location NYC bar (under 30 employees) successfully file for union recognition in 2026?

YES 51%
Crowd
51% YES↓4
Predictors
7+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 203d

Will any NYC cocktail bar publicly file for union recognition with the NLRB before December 31, 2026?

NO 51%
Crowd
49% YES↓2
Predictors
5+1/24h
Hospitalitycloses in 258d

Will the average US restaurant tip percentage on Toast or Square year-end 2026 reports drop below 18%?

tippingtoastsquaredata
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Will Eater NY publish a Memorial Day weekend bar or rooftop guide between May 18 and May 25, 2026?
voided
  • Will Eater NY publish a summer 2026 rooftop guide before Memorial Day weekend?resolved
  • Will Pernod Ricard HY organic sales growth exceed 3% when reported May 11?voided
  • Will Constellation Brands Q4 beer segment sales beat $2.1B consensus on May 9?resolved