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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
All markets/Legislation
Category

Hospitality legislation prediction markets

TL;DR

Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law. Predict regulatory outcomes that move the entire industry.

Legislative outcomes have outsized impact on hospitality margins. These markets price the calls coming out of state capitols, federal agencies, and city councils on the policy fights the industry is fighting right now.

12 open markets · 9 recent resolutions
Legislationcloses in 16d

Will Maryland House Bill 736 (RTD cocktail alcoholic beverage tax) be signed into law before July 1, 2026?

legislationrtdmarylandtax
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 47d

Will any US state enact a canned-cocktail tax, ABV, or licensing bill before August 1, 2026?

Recently resolved
  • Will any US state legislature pass a three-tier reform bill in May 2026?voided
  • Will the NYS State Liquor Authority post any May 2026 board meeting agenda item explicitly addressing cannabis or hemp-derived beverages?voided
  • Will the US federal government announce any new spirits-specific tariff action in May 2026?resolved
  • Will any TTB COLA approval in May 2026 include a hemp-derived THC beverage label from a licensed distillery?voided
  • Will any NYS State Liquor Authority full board meeting in May 2026 publish an agenda item explicitly addressing on-premises licensing reform or processing-time reduction?voided
  • Will the TTB COLA database log at least one agave-spirit-based ready-to-drink with a hemp-derived THC formulation as approved between May 1 and May 31, 2026?voided
  • Will any major spirits distributor file an 8-K announcing a state market exit by Friday?resolved
  • Will any top-10 US spirits distributor file an 8-K naming a brand exit or state delisting before Friday?
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Awards
James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.
legislationrtdcanned-cocktailsstate-policy
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 78d

Will any US state enact a new alcohol cancer warning sign or label requirement before September 1, 2026?

legislationwarning-labelspublic-healthstate-policy
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 111d

Will the FDA issue formal guidance on hemp-derived THC in beverages before September 30, 2026?

YES 62%Moving NO
Crowd
62% YES↓7
Predictors
6+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 199d

Will the EU snap back its 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey in 2026?

tariffseuamerican_whiskeytrade
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 199d

Will the FDA issue any formal enforcement action against a hemp-derived THC beverage company in 2026?

thcfdaregulationenforcement
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 199d

Will Mexico retaliate with tariffs on US spirits before December 31, 2026?

tariffsmexicotraderetaliation
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 199d

Will any state pass legislation in 2026 explicitly banning THC beverages from being sold alongside alcohol?

thclegislationstateregulation
YES 65%
Crowd
65% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 199d

Will any state pass a 2026 ballot measure or law eliminating the tipped minimum wage?

tippingwagelegislationlabor
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 203d

Will at least 5 US states pass new permanent cocktails-to-go legislation in 2026?

NO 56%
Crowd
44% YES↓2
Predictors
6+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 203d

Will any US state pass three-tier reform legislation expanding direct-to-consumer spirits shipping in 2026?

NO 68%Moving NO
Crowd
32% YES↓12
Predictors
3+1/24h
Legislationcloses in 203d

Will the TTB finalize a rule allowing modernized labeling disclosures (alcohol content, allergens, or nutrition facts) before December 31, 2026?

YES 56%
Crowd
56% YES↓4
Predictors
8+1/24h
resolved
  • Will Trump's UK whisky tariff lift appear in Federal Register by Friday?resolved