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A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

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All markets/Awards
Category

Awards prediction markets

TL;DR

James Beard, Tales of the Cocktail Spirited Awards, World's 50 Best, World's Best Bartender. Calibrated calls from people who actually work in the industry.

Awards markets reward people who know the room. They aggregate the trade-press whispers, the regional jury patterns, and the year-over-year voting drift into a single probability you can score.

26 open markets · 8 recent resolutions
Awardscloses in 13h 18m

Which 2026 James Beard Outstanding Bar finalist will win?

YES 72%
Crowd
None / cancelled (72%)↓3
Predictors
3+1/24h
Awardscloses in 13h 18m

Recently resolved
  • Will the 2026 James Beard Foundation finalists list include at least 5 bar or beverage program nominations across all categories?voided
  • Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best New US Cocktail Bar list include at least one Texas venue?resolved
  • Will at least three NYC venues appear on the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Restaurant Bar list?resolved
  • Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Cocktail Bar list include at least one Brooklyn venue?resolved
  • Will Death and Co appear on the 2026 Spirited Awards Top 10 Best US Bar Team list?resolved
  • Will James Beard Awards announce 2026 semifinalists this week?resolved
  • Will Ellers Farm whisky debut trigger 10%+ pre-sale spike by Thursday?voided
  • Did the 2025 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar winner come from New York City?resolved
Other categories
M&A
Forecast which spirits brands get acquired, by whom, and when.
Hospitality
Openings, expansions, brand launches, leadership moves, and the operator decisions that define the next twelve months in bars and restaurants.
Legislation
Three-tier reform, direct-to-consumer rules, tip credit votes, license caps, THC beverage law.
Issues
Trends, controversies, executive moves, and the structural debates the industry is having right now.
Will any NYC bar or beverage program win a James Beard award in any category in 2026?
YES 52%
Crowd
52% YES↑4
Predictors
8+1/24h
Awardscloses in 19h 18m

Will any New York City venue win a 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award on June 15?

awardsjames-beardnychospitality
YES 95%
Crowd
95% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 19h 18m

Will Philadelphia win more 2026 James Beard Restaurant and Chef Award categories than New York City?

james_beardawardsphiladelphianyc
NO 85%
Crowd
15% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 21h 17m

Will a James Beard 2026 Outstanding Bar finalist publicly use AI in any operational workflow?

aijames_beardoperations
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Flashcloses in 21h 17m
Awards

Will the 2026 James Beard Awards ceremony include any non-alcoholic toast or zero-proof moment?

popjames_beardnon_alc
NO 80%
Crowd
20% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will a non-US venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best International Cocktail Bar?

YES 63%Moving YES
Crowd
63% YES↑6
Predictors
4+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will a New York City venue win 2026 Spirited Awards Best US Cocktail Bar?

YES 51%
Crowd
51% YES↑1
Predictors
3+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will at least one Mexico City venue win any 2026 Spirited Awards category?

YES 58%
Crowd
58% YES↑1
Predictors
9+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Best New US Cocktail Bar winner have opened in 2025 or 2026?

YES 63%Moving YES
Crowd
63% YES↑29
Predictors
2+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Who wins Best New York Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?

YES 59%
Crowd
Other finalist (59%)↑2
Predictors
10+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Who wins International Bar Industry Icon 2026?

YES 77%
Crowd
Nominee 2 (TBA) (77%)↓1
Predictors
5+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Who wins Best US Cocktail Bar at the 20th Spirited Awards?

YES 77%
Crowd
Finalist 2 (TBA) (77%)↑3
Predictors
4+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Who wins Best New US Cocktail Bar in 2026?

YES 65%
Crowd
Other finalist (65%)↑5
Predictors
2+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards Bartender of the Year winner be a woman?

NO 53%
Crowd
47% YES↑2
Predictors
6+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will the 2026 Spirited Awards World's Best Cocktail Menu go to a US venue?

YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES↓2
Predictors
8+1/24h
Flashcloses in 44d
Awards

Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?

popglp1spirited_awards
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 44d

Will a 2026 Spirited Awards category be added or renamed to reflect non-traditional formats?

spirited_awardsformatcategories
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 91d

Which tequila tops the 2026 Drinks International Brand Champions report?

YES 65%
Crowd
Jose Cuervo (65%)↑3
Predictors
2+1/24h
Awardscloses in 122d

Will more than three NYC venues land on the 2026 World's 50 Best Bars list?

50_bestnycawards
NO 55%
Crowd
45% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 122d

Will any 2026 World's 50 Best Bar mention the espresso martini in its winning press write-up?

espresso_martini50_besteditorial
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 122d

Will at least three of the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 list at least one zero-proof signature on their flagship menu?

non_alc50_bestmocktailsmenus
YES 85%
Crowd
85% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 122d

Will any World's 50 Best Bar publicly disclose that AI helped design a menu, drink, or guest experience in 2026?

ai50_bestmenusinnovation
YES 55%
Crowd
55% YES
Predictors
1+1/24h
Awardscloses in 152d

Will any cocktail-focused NYC venue earn a Michelin star in the 2026 NY State guide?

YES 55%Moving NO
Crowd
55% YES↓25
Predictors
2+1/24h
Awardscloses in 172d

Which NYC bar will rank highest on World's 50 Best Bars 2026?

YES 70%
Crowd
Sip & Guzzle (70%)↓2
Predictors
2+1/24h
Awardscloses in 172d

How many NYC bars make the World's 50 Best Bars 2026 top 50?

YES 56%
Crowd
3-4 (56%)↑4
Predictors
5+1/24h