Forecast Diageo's next move: FY26 operating profit, tequila divestments, Casamigos repositioning, North American slowdown, and the Don Julio question.
Diageo is the world's largest premium spirits company and the single most-tracked entity in beverage alcohol. Its FY26 guidance, US scotch and tequila volume, and rumored divestment of underperforming celebrity brands set the tone for the entire category. Every Diageo earnings call is a trade-press event. These markets put a probability on the calls and outcomes the industry is already arguing about.
Diageo's fiscal 2026 covers July 2025 through June 2026. Management has guided to organic operating profit growth in line with industry consensus, with North America still the largest single market and Latin America facing tougher comparisons. The biggest analyst debates are around tequila volume (Casamigos and Don Julio), US scotch trade-down, and how aggressively GLP-1 prescriptions reshape the at-home consumer.
Diageo paid up to $1 billion for Casamigos in 2017. Trade press has speculated since 2024 that Diageo might exit or reposition celebrity-backed tequila labels as the category resets. Diageo has publicly committed to the brand, but every quarterly call brings the question back. Liquor Bets runs markets on whether named divestments will be announced by stated dates.
Diageo CEO Debra Crew has acknowledged GLP-1 as a long-term volume question on multiple earnings calls. The clinical data shows reduced alcohol intake among Ozempic and Wegovy users, but the magnitude at industry scale is still debated. Liquor Bets has open markets on whether Diageo's volume guidance gets cut in connection with GLP-1 commentary in any FY26 reporting period.